Local Council By-Elections July 2021

This month saw 43,312 votes votes cast over 29 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Overall, 19(!) council seats changed hands. For comparison with June's results, see here.

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  June	+/- Feb 20	Avge/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	29	16,065	37.1%	+8.0	-1.4	554	+5
Labour	27	12,180	28.1%	+4.6	-1.9	451	-5
LibDem	21	6,216	14.3%	+2.5	-1.2	296	+2
Green	18	5,933	13.7%	-2.2	+11.2	330	+2
SNP*	0						0
PC**	1	35	0.1%	-0.5	-0.8	35	0
Ind***	10	2,330	5.4%	-6.8	-7.2	233	-4
Other****	17	525	1.2%	+1.0	+1.1	31	0

* There were no by-elections in Scotland
** There was one by-election in Wales
*** There were no independent clashes
**** Others this month consisted of Basildon Community Residents Party (82), Communist Party of Britain (61), For Britain (37, 26, 19) Reform (19, 29, 37, 23), Taking the Initiative Party (18), TUSC (24, 27, 9, 39), UKIP (11, 28), Women's Equality Party (37)

The churn in politics made itself felt in this month's elections. 19 seats changing hands is unprecedented in a "normal" month, so what does this indicate? It pretty much backs up the patterns seen in recent parliamentary by-elections. I.e. A shift to the Tories in "traditional" Labour areas, while the Tories find themselves menaced by the Liberal Democrats and the Greens in their alleged safe places. This, of course, is neither a natural process nor an inevitability. Older voters are disproportionately more likely to vote, and doubly so for council by-elections, so it's necessary to think about their reception to the key issues of the day. In Labour seats, they're fighting against a populist impulse its present leadership did plenty to nurture between 2016-19, and so it's a kick against what these voters see as the establishment. Likewise in Tory-held seats, it seems these same voters are turning to whoever is best at bludgeoning the blues - and this tends to be anyone but Labour.

Which helps explain why the Greens are doing so well. July marks their second best ever performance, coming after last month. And the Liberal Democrats only just beat them in the popular vote stakes by fielding more candidates. As I've argued previously, the Greens pose Labour a threat, particularly the new core vote Keir Starmer is happy to take for granted. But they also have a conservationist 'green and pleasant land' appeal to Tory voters who don't look too closely, and might want to do their bit for the planet. There's also cleave into LibDem support, and this is starkly revealed in the data tables of sundry polls - the party is practically extinct among the under 34s whereas the Greens have very obviously taken their place.

Anyway, lots of interesting things going on. Unusually August is set to be quite a busy by-election month with 17 contents to look forward to, and an over-preponderance of contests in Scotland. We'll see what patterns, if any, emerge.

1st July
Chelmsford DC, Wittle, Con hold
Elmbridge DC, Cobham and Downside, LDem gain from Con
Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park, Con hold
Islington LBC, Tollington, Lab hold
Newark and Sherwood DC, Bridge, Con gain from Ind x2
North East Lincolnshire, Heneage, Con gain from Lab
Stoke-on-Trent UA, Penkhull and Stoke, Con gain from Ind

8th July
East Devon DC, Feniton, Con gain from Ind
East Devon DC, Honiton St Michael’s, Lab gain from LDem
East Suffolk DC, Aldeburgh and Leiston, Grn gain from Con, Con hold
Harlow DC, Mark Hall, Con gain from Lab
Huntingdonshire DC, St Neots East, Ind gain from Lab
Mid Sussex DC, Ardingly and Balcombe, Grn gain from Con

15th July
Sandwell MBC, Tividale, Con gain from Lab

22nd July
Camden LBC, Fortune Green, LDem hold
Dover DC, Alkham and Capel-le-Ferne, Con hold
Leicester UA, Humberstone and Hamilton, Con gain from Lab
North Somerset UA, Congresbury and Puxton, Grn gain from LDem
Rhondda Cynon Taf UA, Tyn-y-Nant, Lab hold
Spelthorne DC, Staines, Grn hold
Thanet DC, Cliftonville East, Con hold
Wirral MBC, Liscard, Lab hold

29th July
Bassetlaw DC, East Retford South, Con gain from Lab
Basildon DC, Pitsea North West, Con gain from Lab
Harrogate DC, Knaresborough Scriven Park, LDem gain from Con
Norfolk CC, Gaywood South, LDem gain from Con
South Tyneside DC, Fellgate and Hedworth, Lab gain from Ind

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