Party | Number of Candidates | Total Vote | % | +/- April | +/- May 18 | Avge/ Contest | +/- Seats |
Conservative | 45 | 26,881 | 26.2% | +11.6% | -13.0% | 597 | -3 |
Labour | 39 | 29,574 | 28.8% | +5.6% | -8.9% | 758 | -3 |
LibDem | 36 | 18,583 | 18.1% | -0.3% | +2.9% | 516 | 0 |
UKIP | 13 | 5,105 | 5.0% | +3.8% | +4.4% | 393 | +1 |
Green | 15 | 4,905 | 4.8% | -10.7% | -0.2% | 327 | 0 |
SNP | 2 | 3,373 | 3.3% | -14.1% | +3.3% | 1,687 | +1 |
PC** | 1 | 121 | 0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | 121 | 0 |
Ind*** | 15 | 9,704 | 9.5% | +8.1% | 647 | +5 | |
Other**** | 12 | 4,384 | 4.3% | +3.4% | +3.4% | 365 | +1 |
* There were two by-elections in Scotland
** There was one by-election in Wales
*** There were two Independent clashes this month
**** Others this month consisted of Women's Equality Party (71, 41), People Before Profit (151, 218), Democrats and Veterans (13, 28), Christian People's Alliance (52), Anti-Cuts (91), Citizens First (45), Tunbridge Wells Alliance (1,088), Upminster and Cranham Residents Association (2,421), British Union and Sovereignty Party (165)
Not a bad set of results if you're a follower of the two main parties. Both shed the same number of seats and Labour edged ahead again in terms of votes, even though it was fielding markedly fewer candidates than the Tories. This should give the latter pause for concern. As a lot of the seats contested this month were held over to this set of May elections, these were a) in seats that, at this point in the cycle, disproportionately favoured the Conservatives, and b) differential turn outs by age are accentuated in local by-elections. They fell back under conditions of a double advantage, which seems to continue the pattern established this year so far.
Of course, it could be that we're playing with new rules now. We saw the EU elections and the catastrophic results for the Tories and Labour, and that YouGov poll has since dropped that places the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party first and second respectively. If the latter is more than overspill from the excitement, such as it was, of those elections it's in the continual monitoring of these real elections where we'll see it first.
2nd May
Broxbourne BC, Broxbourne & Hoddesdon South, Con hold
Cambridge BC, Kings Hedges, Lab hold
Cambridge BC, Trumpington, LDem hold
Cambridgeshire CC, Trumpington, LDem hold
Cherwell DC, Kidlington West, LDem hold
Craven DC, Upper Wharfedale, Con hold
Cumbria CC, Thursby, Con hold
Dundee CC, North East, SNP gain from Lab
Durham CC, Shildon & Dene Valley, LDem gain from Lab
Durham CC, Spennymoor, Ind hold
Exeter BC, Priory, Lab hold
Gloucester CC, Churchdown, LDem hold
Hart DC, Hook, Con hold
Havant BC, Purbrook, Con hold
Kent CC, Northfleet & Gravesend West, Lab hold
Kent CC, Sittingbourne North, Ind gain from Con
Lewisham LB, Evelyn, Lab hold
Lewisham LB, Whitefoot, Lab hold
Manchester MB, Fallowfield, Lab hold
Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Maer & Whitmore, Con hold
Newcastle upon Tyne MB, Monument, Lab hold
North East Lincolnshire UA, South, UKIP gain from Lab
Northumberland UA, Holywell, Lab hold
Portsmouth UA, Cosham, Con hold
Reading UA, Thames, Con hold
St Albans DC, Sopwell, LDem hold
Sefton MB, Norwood, Lab gain from LDem
South Tyneside MB, Cleadon & East Boldon, Lab hold
Sunderland MB, Sandhill, LDem hold
Surrey CC, Haslemere, Ind gain from Con
Three Rivers DC, Carpenders Park, Con hold
Thurrock UA, Chadwell St Mary, Lab hold
Tunbridge Wells BC, Paddock Wood East, Con hold
Tunbridge Wells BC, Park, Oth gain from Con
Watford BC, Meriden, LDem hold
Welwyn Hatfield BC, Hatfield East, Con hold
Welwyn Hatfield BC, Hatfield South West, Lab hold
West Sussex CC, Northgate & West Green, Lab hold
Wolverhampton MB, Tettenhall Wightwick, Con hold
Wolverhampton MB, Wednesfield South, Lab hold
9th May
East Lothian, Haddington & Lammermuir, Con hold
Havering LBC, Cranham, Oth hold
23rd May
Neath Port Talbot UA, Resolven, Lab, Ind gain from Lab
Tendring DC, St Osyth x2 (new seats), Ind gain x2
30th May
Gosport BC, Brockhurst, LDem hold
re the Lib Dems and the polls, in a sense, it is irrelevant because:
ReplyDeleteCorbyn, having raised hopes of swinging behind a referendum has now backtracked to the default "election".
As Blair said, the Tories would have to be "clinically insane" to call an election.
There will be no election, and if I know that, Corbyn must, which implies...
He is content to play, essentially, Russian roulette (appropriately named) with UK's future by gambling that somehow parliament can stop a determined Raab or Johnson going no deal, and if he fails - so be it, because everyone knows he would be happy for the Tories to go no deal and "own" it, so in his loopy mind Labour can come and pick up the pieces and save everyone with socialism in one country.
In the land of the blind, etc. A perfect storm of ideological idiocy on either side with ordinary people the victims and there's apparently nothing anyone can do about it.
You talk about what this can do to the Tory Party, but I think for Labour this is going to be worse, far worse, than Iraq.
Blair knows all about "clinically insane" tbf to him.
ReplyDelete