Theresa May and the Death of the Tory Party

A thousand obituaries have been written for Theresa May, and yet she's defied every single one of them. From the moment she bungled the election, the fall out from Grenfell Tower, and the long, calamitous June we've endured for nigh on two years, the premier-ship has weathered all storms. Sure, her first major squall smashed the bridge completely and swept her two most important - and able - lieutenants out to sea. But it also locked steering into position, ensuring subsequent buffeting by turbulence or tempest failed to knock her from her unidirectional course. Not even gaping chunks shot out of the hull by some of the worst defeats ever suffered by a government failed to sink the vessel. And as she limped into port, the deck in tatters and the sails but rags streaming from the masts, it looked like May inadvertently scuttled herself.

It wasn't just May's ill-advised choice of words and tone that marked the end of the road, it's the test she set herself. Last Sunday with the PM's blessing, cabinet members did the rounds to say the deal wouldn't be coming back if support can't be mustered for it. Come the week the Speaker was minded to rule out its return thanks to parliamentary standing orders, and in the days since the EU issued their two-lane extension - 12th April if May's deal wasn't agreed and nothing else was forthcoming, and 22nd May if it was to get the supplementary legislation through - the hard Brexit right and the DUP cried foul and reiterated their opposition. Then came her disastrous public address. There was no way, not even the remotest likelihood a third try could clear the Commons. For someone with no reverse gear, who confuses obstinacy for leadership, this is a recipe for paralysis. You could quite easily see May doing nothing except for pantomiming negotiations and waiting for the clock to run down again to get the deal through.

If the Twitter buzz retailing rumours and rumours of rumours is correct, then the end truly is upon us. Reporting earlier on Saturday, Alex Wickham of Buzzfeed had the low down on an awkward but fruitless encounter between the Tory whips' office and May. To all intents and purposes they told her to go. And the gossip about unnamed minister texting unnamed minister with a view to decanting May from Number 10 acquired substance as "Shippers" chimed in. He claims 11 ministers are planning to tell May to go at Cabinet on Monday, including Michael Gove who has "secretly assembled" a leadership campaign team. What chance an orderly transition after May? Um ...

Ordinarily, if a Prime Minister steps down the deputy takes over as caretaker until they are replaced by a new leader. On this occasion, this would be David Lidington - an otherwise anonymous and not obviously objectionable Tory, at least compared to the other "characters" that make up the government. The problem with Lidington, according to "Shippers", is that he's quite prepared to do Brexit as the full customs union with single market access monty, with the backing of the Labour Party. Curious that Sajid Javid is counted among the Leavers-for-Lidington, while Jeremy Hunt is very much not in favour of such a proposal. Even more bizarre is Gove who, despite his popularity among the backbenchers and the most prominent Tory in the Leave campaign after Boris Johnson, also has the hots for Labour's position, at least according to self-appointed ERG shop steward Steve Baker. Is this what hegemony looks like? Is Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister already?

For Tory watchers, this is very exciting. The left's path to and retention of power involves the disruption of the Tories and the dispersal of their voter coalition. Happily, they're on the verge of doing this necessary job themselves. For the government to adopt Labour's approach to Brexit will cause a major schism. The ERG and their friends will cry betrayal, of course, and Nigel Farage is sure to go through the "this ain't Brexit" motions. With luck, the hard right will decamp and split the party from top to bottom - but that's expecting a bit too much. As per their friends on the Labour right (literal friends, in some cases) who have a record of demobilising their base, what is more likely is their shrieks and squeals to start prising apart the Tories' electoral coalition and driving a wedge between the Conservative Party and those hard right voters for whom the hardest Brexit has become an S&M fantasy. Not ideal when your coalition is old, isn't replacing itself, and when leaving the EU is the glue holding the shebang together.

For May, the writing is on the wall and she will be remembered as a terrible Prime Minister. Even so, she has rendered a valuable service. In spite of herself she has led the Tory party to the brink of immolation. If the whole thing is touched off and goes up like a bomb, then history might be kinder to her than she could ever hope it to be.