Party | Number of Candidates | Total Vote | % | +/- 2017 | +/- 2016 | Average | +/- Seats |
Conservative | 273 | 169,050 | 35.6% | +0.7% | +6.4% | 619 | -15 |
Labour | 253 | 153,211 | 32.2% | +0.9% | +1.6% | 606 | -1 |
LibDem | 215 | 83,606 | 17.6% | +0.1% | +2.7% | 389 | +19 |
UKIP | 59 | 5,674 | 1.2% | -2.5% | -7.7% | 96 | -8 |
Green | 136 | 21,076 | 4.4% | -0.2% | -0.2% | 155 | +1 |
SNP* | 10 | 11,884 | 2.5% | +0.6% | -1.6% | 1,188 | +1 |
Plaid Cymru ** | 2 | 820 | 0.2% | +0.1% | -0.5% | 410 | 0 |
Ind*** | 100 | 23,504 | 4.9% | +0.9% | -0.5% | 235 | +7 |
Other**** | 32 | 7,176 | 1.5% | -0.4% | +0.0% | 224 | -1 |
* There were 10 by-elections in Scotland
** There were five by-elections in Wales
*** There were 13 Independent clashes
**** See the quarterly round ups for the results from smaller parties
Considering the painful political year that was 2018, the story told in the council by-elections of the last 12 months is a mixture of not much changing and business as usual. Not much changing in terms of vote shares. Conservatives and Labour are miles in front but are giving up electoral performances significantly lower than their respective polling. This is less a case of real voters turning away from the main parties and more the consequence of how the availability of other options depresses their vote. For example, totted up together the Independents muster almost five per cent between them but in an actual general election they get nowhere.
And by-election business as usual? The incumbent party suffers in terms of councillors lost and the Liberal Democrats resuming their winning ways at a local level. Though it has to be said, the powers that be in the party haven't twigged yet that their path back to sustained success is targeting the Conservatives. The results from 2018 underline this.
Are their other stories these results tell? UKIP are totally done. Gerard Batten's decision to take the party up the garden path of fascist flirty fishing alienated what was left of its well known figures, including Nigel Farage. If whatever happens with Brexit inspires a revolt of leave voters, it's unlikely the party will be its political focus. No tears shed here. As for the Greens, who like the LibDems think political capital is to be accumulated from gouging Labour, we have a year of standing still. This is no mean feat considering the pressure represented by Corbynism, but again they have to have a think about whether more profitable opportunities lie elsewhere.
Dare some predictions be ventured? Well, we're not supposed to do these any more thanks to calling all the big political events of recent years wrong. But I wouldn't be surprised that if, sitting here next year, we look upon the year's results and find they are substantially the same as those here - but perhaps with even fewer interventions from our UKIP friends.
NB Eagle-eyed readers may have spotted that the minus and the pluses for the seats gained/lost don't tally up. This is because one by-election was the creation of a new three-seat division in which no one had stood before, and was won by the LibDems.
The interesting thing is how many green gains have come against and in rural Tory areas, such as in Aylesbury Vale.
ReplyDelete"Though it has to be said, the powers that be in the party haven't twigged yet that their path back to sustained success is targeting the Conservatives."
ReplyDeleteI very much doubt it. The Tory vote is now consolidated around that hard No Deal, core vote, which is not going to be in any way attracted to a pro-EU Liberal Party. The obvious target for the Liberals, as for the Greens, Plaid and SNP will be a disillusioned Labour Remain vote, alienated by the pro-Brexit stance of the Labour leadership.
The fact of Greens picking up seats in rural Tory areas, is simply a sign that the ex-Tory Remain voters, are looking for a home, as was the case in Kensington and Chelsea and Canterbury, and in the GE were prepared to lend it to Labour as the only credible alternative party of government to the Tories. In by-elections, local elections that logic doesn't hold, and so they are more likely to lend that vote to whoever the most likely anti-Brexit candidate is, which might be Liberal, Green, Plaid or SNP, or maybe even a TIGGER.
If the TIGGERS as seems inevitable link up with the LIberals, and some form of "progressive alliance" is formed, in a range of seats come the GE, they may well be in a position to push Labour into third place, as has happened in Scotland already. Remain voters will see that as the best way of preventing either Tory or Labour pushing through Brexit.
As watson pushes through the split in the PLP, and sets up his own undeclared party, apparently being allowed to do so unchallenged by Corbyn and McDonnell, that decomposition of the LP will gather pace.