Theresa May's Theatrical War

War and politics go hand in hand, which is something Theresa May certainly understands even if sundry Labour backbenchers do not. Reminding us of this was a rumour reported on by BBC Washington correspondent, Jon Sopel. He suggests that while the US led the bombing of selected targets in and around Damascus, it was actually the French and the British who were egging on an immediate response. The suggestion being that May wanted it done sooner rather than later to avoid the decision going before Parliament and risking the fate of her predecessor. This is a scandalous state of affairs if true, but one that is entirely plausible given May's unenviable track record of dodging scrutiny and having little time for the democratic niceties of Parliament. Can this be explained solely in terms of her personality quirks and leadership style? No.

Ironically, May probably would have won a vote in the Commons. Unlike the muddled Syria motion Dave brought before Parliament in 2013, the objective of missile strikes were very limited: an ostensible diminution of Assad's capacity to wage chemical warfare in the future and to demonstrate to the world that such atrocities merit a punishment beating. There are people on the government benches who are opposed to military action, but are more than matched by the 30 to 50 Labour MPs convinced strikes are appropriate (some of whom are so gung-ho it's hard to envisage circumstances where they wouldn't back a military action). May therefore didn't want to risk it. Her premiership is characterised by a play-it-safe attitude, whether before the election, during her farcical campaign, and in the shambles after - if your authority is shot only a limited room for manoeuvre remains. Dave was damaged by losing his Syria vote, but thanks to the coalition he lived to fight another day. Had May lost this vote, under the circumstances, the consequences could have proven different: she might have been out of her job.

Second, while in one respect timing isn't crucial, timing is crucial. Eh? Despite some of the idiot musings to have poured forth onto the airwaves and status updates in recent days, the bombings were not about halting a humanitarian emergency, nor was there any suggestion further chemical attacks were imminent. In May's case, it was about avoiding Parliament certainly, but had she delayed and waited for the inspectors to make their assessments, this is time where her control of the narrative could have slipped away. According to Survation, 54% believe there should have been a Parliamentary vote on military action and only a fifth endorse the bombing. That could only go up as more critical voices get more air time, and opponents of war start mobilising the numbers and wresting the conversation away from her and the Tory editorial offices. Once a few dozen CLPs had made their opinions known, some of those Labour MPs she would have had to rely on to get a vote through might not have proven so reliable after all.

Third, a short, sharp, quick intervention is a way of laying to rest the howling phantoms of Afghanistan and Iraq. Allowing Trump to gloat about the success of the strikes, of emphasising the precision character of the attacks (according to regime sources, there were only three injuries resulting from them), of curtailing public debate and speculation, May is rehabilitating the illusion of a costless war, or simulated war. Pressing buttons and causing explosions, of a rain of bombs carrying away military targets and weapons infrastructure but never civilians, this is how war in the 21st century should be - trust us and war can become painless, especially when the Russians are phoned up in advance so their personnel (and those of the regime) can get out of Dodge. It is ultimately a performative, theatrical war that gives off the impression of "doing something" to salve one's conscience and that of an imagined public when, in fact, it might be doing nothing or, worse, touching off a wider conflagration.

Will May succeed in rehabilitating this idea of war? Unlikely. Nevertheless her action alongside Trump and Macron has serious consequences. She has abrogated Parliamentary convention and returned war making to the office of the Prime Minister. She has flouted the UN Charter, and by attacking when she did May circumvented due process - the weapons inspectors hadn't even begun their investigation when the missiles flew. In so doing she has let every big power know they can flout international law with impunity, and as a consequence is helping make the world a more uncertain, if not dangerous place.