Local Council By-Elections March 2017

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  Feb	+/- Mar 16	Average/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	18	8,050	36.1%	+12.6%	+10.4%	447	+1
Labour	15	6,214	27.9%	+4.6%	+9.5%	414	-2
LibDem	17	3,222	14.4%	-12.9%	-5.0%	190	+2
UKIP	15	2,377	10.7%	+1.4%	+0.8%	158	-1
Green	8	1,173	5.3%	+1.7%	+3.1%	147	+1
SNP*	0						0
PC**	0						0
Ind***	6	1,128	5.1%	+3.3%	-3.7%	188	-1
Other****	1	143	0.6%	-10.6%	-7.8%	143	0

* There were no by-elections in Scotland
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** There was one Independent clash
**** Others this month consisted of It's Our County (143 votes)

Overall, 22,307 votes were cast over 18 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Six council seats changed hands in total. For comparison with February's results, see here.

With no "distortions" introduced by Scottish by-elections nor anomalously good performances in particular locales from the LibDems, Independents or Others, the vote share this month has settled down to a very rough approximation of national polling. Which is pretty much what you would expect. The Tories are powering ahead and Labour, well, the figures speak for themselves. However, matters aren't helped by a studied reluctance to stand in every by-election. The Tory membership is in a parlous state indeed, and yet consistently find someone - anyone - to stand. You'd have thought Labour with its gargantuan membership would be able to do the same?

I also want to note this month the Green vote. Partly boosted by their taking a seat in Leominster, I'll be interested to see if we'll start see something of a recovery from them. As Corbynism copes with difficulties posed by Brexit and other things, it would be reasonable to assume liberal left remainers for whom the LibDems remain too toxic might find them an attractive proposition. One swallow does not a summer make, so we shall be keeping an eye on their result from now on.