Quarter One Local By-Election Results 2017

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  Q4	+/- Q1 2016	Average	+/- Seats
Conservative	42	15,626	28.0%	-2.8%	+1.0%	372	-7
Labour	36	14,190	25.4%	+0.5%	-2.7%	394	-2
LibDem	35	12,093	21.7%	+3.3%	+5.3%	346	+8
UKIP	31	5,403	9.7%	+3.9%	+0.1%	174	-2
Green	24	2,199	3.9%	+0.7%	+0.4%	92	+2
SNP*	1	1,461	2.6%	-4.1%	-3.0%	1,461	0
PC**	0						0
Ind***	9	1,621	2.9%	-3.9%	-0.7%	180	-1
Other****	6	3,239	5.8%	+3.9%	+1.0%	540	+2

* There was one by-election in Scotland
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** There were two Independent clashes
**** Others this Quarter consisted of Fylde Ratepayers (564), Bollington First (939), Uttlesford Residents (824 & 716), Scottish Libertarian (53 votes), and It's Our County (143 votes)

Overall, 55,832 votes were cast over 42 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. For comparison see Quarter Four's results here.

There's not a great deal to add to previous commentary on the monthly by-election tallies. Conservative and Labour vote shares on this occasion are depressed by the anomalous but excellent results scored by the LibDems in February and, to a lesser extent, the huge vote that went to Others (main residents' association-type outfits) in the same month. But the Tories lead in vote share, though they will keep dropping those council seats. Labour are stuck in the doldrums, UKIP are back at their "natural" level after years of hype, and the Greens quietly did well too. I'd be happy if Labour walked away from a quarter with a single net gain, let alone two.

Now Brexit has been triggered, I expect pretty much the same story as this quarter. The LibDems will continue to do well, but I want to see if the Greens, SNP, and Plaid are able to reap any Remain dividend in vote terms too.

Local Council By-Elections March 2017

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/-  Feb	+/- Mar 16	Average/ Contest	+/- Seats
Conservative	18	8,050	36.1%	+12.6%	+10.4%	447	+1
Labour	15	6,214	27.9%	+4.6%	+9.5%	414	-2
LibDem	17	3,222	14.4%	-12.9%	-5.0%	190	+2
UKIP	15	2,377	10.7%	+1.4%	+0.8%	158	-1
Green	8	1,173	5.3%	+1.7%	+3.1%	147	+1
SNP*	0						0
PC**	0						0
Ind***	6	1,128	5.1%	+3.3%	-3.7%	188	-1
Other****	1	143	0.6%	-10.6%	-7.8%	143	0

* There were no by-elections in Scotland
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** There was one Independent clash
**** Others this month consisted of It's Our County (143 votes)

Overall, 22,307 votes were cast over 18 local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. Six council seats changed hands in total. For comparison with February's results, see here.

With no "distortions" introduced by Scottish by-elections nor anomalously good performances in particular locales from the LibDems, Independents or Others, the vote share this month has settled down to a very rough approximation of national polling. Which is pretty much what you would expect. The Tories are powering ahead and Labour, well, the figures speak for themselves. However, matters aren't helped by a studied reluctance to stand in every by-election. The Tory membership is in a parlous state indeed, and yet consistently find someone - anyone - to stand. You'd have thought Labour with its gargantuan membership would be able to do the same?

I also want to note this month the Green vote. Partly boosted by their taking a seat in Leominster, I'll be interested to see if we'll start see something of a recovery from them. As Corbynism copes with difficulties posed by Brexit and other things, it would be reasonable to assume liberal left remainers for whom the LibDems remain too toxic might find them an attractive proposition. One swallow does not a summer make, so we shall be keeping an eye on their result from now on.