Quarter One Local By-Election Results 2015

Party	Number of candidates	Total vote	%	+/-  Q4	Average/ contest	+/-  Q4	+/- Seats
Conservative	19	9,143	24.4%	-4.6%	481	-23	+2
Labour	17	12,154	32.3%	+8.4%	715	+268	-1
LibDem	13	2,053	5.5%	-5.2%	158	-147	0
UKIP	13	3,339	8.9%	-10.0%	257	-137	-2
SNP*	4	5,786	15.5%	+9.7%	1,447	+247	+2
Plaid Cymru**	3	480	1.3%	+0.7%	160	-191	0
Green	10	1,875	5.0%	+2.4%	188	+86	0
BNP	0						0
TUSC	0						0
Independent***	8	1,507	4.0%	-3.3%	188	-106	0
Other****	2	1,084	2.9%	+1.9%	542	+364	-1

* There were four by-elections in Scotland.
** There were three by-elections in Wales.
*** There was one independent clash this quarter.
**** 'Other' this quarter were People First (80 votes) and Llanwit First (1,004 votes)

37,421 votes were cast over 20 individual local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. Fractions are rounded to one decimal place for percentages, and the nearest whole number for averages. You can compare these with Quarter Four 2014's results here.

The final complete quarter before the general election and what does it tell us. Well, the obvious observation is Labour are leading the Tories, despite as per fielding slightly fewer candidates. It might also be suggestive of further corroboration of a squeeze on UKIP and the LibDems. Interesting to see the Greens buck the trend also identified by various polling organisations. And I'm afraid comrades hoping beyond hope the SNP surge will melt before polling day, well, if anything their reach is increasing. To come third overall in by-election results from across Britain is an astounding but worrying achievement.

Of course, local council by-elections come with huge caveats. Elections can disproportionately take place in 'safe' seats and when they do, Tory majorities tend to pile up larger than Labour ones. Some wards are bigger than others (hello Scotland) too. Nevertheless if we're seeing the tentative confirmation of polling trends in actual votes cast, then these are probably real shifts that may anticipate the results five weeks hence.