Quarter Four Local By-Election Results 2013

Party	Number of candidates	Total vote	%	+/- Q3	Average/ contest	+/- Q3	+/- Seats
Conservative	72	25,133	20.3%	-7.0%	349	-4	-3
Labour	63	42,668	34.5%	+1.0%	677	+193	+6
LibDem	55	13,570	11%	+0.6%	247	+30	0
UKIP	62	15,933	12.9%	-4.0%	257	-11	0
SNP*	7	7,186	5.8%	+5.8%	1,027	+1,027	-2
Plaid Cymru**	4	1,022	0.8%	-0.5%	255	-290	0
Green	32	2,938	2.4%	-1.5%	92	-80	0
BNP	7	348	0.3%	+0.2%	50	-70	0
TUSC	13	570	0.5%	-0.1%	44	-43	0
Independent***	36	8797	7.1%	+2.4%	244	+78	-3
Other****	33	5,585	4.5%	+3.3%	169	+68	+2

*There were seven by-elections in Scotland.
**There were four by-elections in Wales, two of which were contested by Plaid Cymru.
***There were seven independent clashes this quarter.
****There were three 'other' clashes in the same contests. 

Overall 123,750 votes were cast over 74 individual local authority (tier one and tier two) contests. Fractions are rounded to one decimal place for percentages, and the nearest whole number for averages.

It's a truism that by-elections are an opportunity for the smaller parties and independents to shine, hence depressing the vote of the two main parties. It's also true that things change from one month to by-elections. Results can easily be distorted by the frequency by-elections occur in safe seats where parties can pile up their votes. But spread out over a quarter you can reasonably expect these distortions to be balanced out. If that is the case, looking at these results are very sobering for any Conservative supporter. Not only does Labour have a 14-point lead it manages to do so contesting nine fewer elections than the Tories!

A glitch you might say, an off-chance result of a load of by-elections in safe Labour areas? Perhaps. But consider the averages. The leap in Labour's sum might indicate just that, yet look at the Tory, LibDem and UKIP totals. They have more or less stabilised over a six month period. There is a very good chance the 200,000 or so votes cast in that time reflect real patterns in the general population.

Labour can't pop the champers yet. These are second order elections, after all. A chance to protest, a chance to give a smaller party a punt. A long, hard road is still to be travelled.