By-Election Results October 2013

Party	Number of Candidates	Total Vote	%	+/- Sept	Average/ contest	+/- Sept	+/- Seats
Conservative	29	11,749	22.1%	-10.5%	405	+34	-2
Labour	27	19,317	36.3%	+7.9%	715	+328	+4
LibDem	21	7,077	13.3%	+3.9%	337	+159	+1
UKIP	24	5,596	10.5%	-10.8%	233	-26	0
SNP*	4	4,960	9.3%	+9.3%	1,240	+1,240	-2
Plaid Cymru**	2	236	0.4%	+0.4%	118	+236	0
Green	12	1,234	2.3%	-1.0%	103	-11	0
BNP	3	115	0.2%	-0.2%	38	-82	0
TUSC	1	21	0%	+0.0%	21	+21	0
Independent***	11	1,171	2.2%	-1.9%	106	-47	-1
Other****	14	1,697	3.2%	+2.7%	121	+62	0

* There were four by-elections in Scotland.
** There were two by-elections in Wales.
*** There was only one independent clash consisting of two candidates in a single contest.
**** 'Other' this month consisted of EngDem (32); No Bedroom Tax (446), Christian (60), Communist (35), Solidarity (28), Britannica (19), Scottish Democratic Alliance (1) - all in Glasgow Govan; Pirate (79), Borders (228), Patria (3), Resident (222), Brit Dems Stop Immigration Leave EU (85), Christian (133), Community Action Party (326)

Overall, 53,173 votes were cast over 29 individual local (tier one and tier two) authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. For comparison see September's results here.

These look like a very good set of results for Labour and the LibDems, and pretty awful ones for the Conservatives and UKIP. And that is true. However, once again our friend 'geographical variance' comes into play - in September the shoe was very much on the other foot. This time it's bounced back and balance is restored. Labour and the LibDems have performed well because there were a lot of by-elections in areas where they're strong. The superficially amazing results for the SNP off the back of just four candidates are because Scottish wards are much larger. Hence they piled the votes in for the reds and the yellows too while, of course, north of the border the Tories are dead and UKIP is just a rumour.

The vote averages show a stabilisation for both these parties, and that is particularly a problem for the Tories. Their mean vote is stubbornly below Labour's, even when in months like September's when things went more their way. A partial explanation lies in the Tories standing absolutely everywhere, even when there's zero chance of a half-decent vote and despite their party being in an offensively odious state of decomposition. UKIP, to a lesser extent, are stretching every sinew to stand in every by-election it can. But that can only account for so much. Could there be trouble ahead for the Tories?

NB Those annoyed by the zero percentage awarded TUSC above, 21 votes work out as 0.04% of the total cast and therefore didn't register on my scale that goes to a single decimal place.