tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post8374337187771819676..comments2024-03-29T09:14:53.583+00:00Comments on All That Is Solid ...: Managing Labour's Electoral ExpectationsPhilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06298147857234479278noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-82130720500827202012016-05-04T22:28:03.404+01:002016-05-04T22:28:03.404+01:00Yes. Vote Labour.Yes. Vote Labour.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06298147857234479278noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-89059577235977538822016-05-04T20:26:32.096+01:002016-05-04T20:26:32.096+01:00Do you take a particular stance on the police &...Do you take a particular stance on the police & crime commissioner elections?<br />asquithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14246701347539264295noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-34874138877496963552016-05-04T15:09:59.445+01:002016-05-04T15:09:59.445+01:00Re Phil's comment (number 3)
Socialist Party ...Re Phil's comment (number 3)<br /><br />Socialist Party Scotland (SPS) is the CWI affiliate who were in Sheridan's Solidarity but split away from it in March 2015 (a). This was over Solidarity's decision to "lend" their votes to the SNP in the May General Election. SPS are now in the TUSC (as elsewhere) and are standing candidates under that banner. The Scottish Socialist Party are part of the RISE coalition.<br /><br />As for Wales (where I live).<br /><br />Ukip are still on track to get 7-9 seats throughout the Regional List votes. This system means that despite a Party getting most votes, they might not get any seats on the List due to their getting too many Constituency seats.<br /><br />For example South Wales Central has 8 Constituencies (mainly Cardiff) and Labour won all of them in 2011 (b). In the Regional List Labour won won 85,445 votes, Tories (45, 751) Plaid (28,606) and LibDems (16,514). Due to the maths involved, the List seats ended up as Tories (2), Plaid (1) and LibDems (1).<br />For more on the maths see here(c).<br /><br />So, rather than waste a vote, you have to vote (to my mind) for a Party which is best placed to beat Ukip and the Tories on the Regional List. Many I know are voting Green for that reason.<br /><br />London may be what is on most Labour minds but we are about to face 5 years of seeing Neil Hamilton and Mark Reckless making a comeback in Wales.<br /><br />John R<br /><br /><br />(a) http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13206123.Solidarity_faces_breakaway_over_Tommy_Sheridan_s_support_for_SNP/<br /><br />(b) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Wales_Central_(National_Assembly_for_Wales_electoral_region)<br /><br />(c) http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2016/04/20/ams-in-wales-explained/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-67125201543635129232016-05-04T09:20:06.365+01:002016-05-04T09:20:06.365+01:00I live in Scotland and think second place is the m...I live in Scotland and think second place is the most likely outcome this time.<br /><br />The prognosis for the future is not good, though I think Kez has done a good job under impossible circumstances on the whole.<br /><br />The SNP was expected to go left under Sturgeon and they did the opposite, with her ascension seeming to further embed people like Swinney, who, not trying to use the term too pejoratively, is a pretty classic Tartan Tory, backed up by Tasmina, a literal ex-Tory.<br /><br />I think getting people who identify as left wing, especially young people, to support policies that are well outside of their natural milieu is going to define Scotland's future. Getting the overwhelming support of young people while opposing tax increases on people earning over £150,000 is a pretty big deal, and I think the ultimately outcome here is going to be that when the SNP wave breaks, which it will, Tory policies and by extension the Scottish tories themselves are going to have been rehabilitated. <br /><br />It's hard to get this across, but it is bizarre seeing people who have identified as left wing all their lives embrace the neoliberalism they resisted under Thatcher and Blair, and to really really go to bat for those positions on social media and in real life. It's funny that it took an attempt to shatter the union to finally cement that hegemony.<br /><br />I have no suggestions for Scottish Labour really. They're doing a lot of the things I would want them to do (and their manifesto was surprisingly and refreshingly light on aping nationalism) but to no obvious gain. I think perhaps the only thing to do is go back to basics and really shore up their links with unions, and to rebuild trust by standing with workers wherever they can, and to put their focus on things outside the Scottish parliament. Official opposition or no, the parliamentary games are pointless right now.Stevenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16190895925207845165noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-34866795442623596612016-05-04T08:05:59.809+01:002016-05-04T08:05:59.809+01:00I am increasingly convinced that the Westminster/S...I am increasingly convinced that the Westminster/SPAD/media bubble is now just completely separated from the rest of the real world, and that applies to about much of the Left commentariat - a term I think applies because most of it in the various sects has also been completely separated from real life for decades.<br /><br />Take this particular issue of the election predictions. As far as the media and Blair-rights is concerned its just a game whereby to try to trap Corbyn. Yesterday he was attacked for saying that Labour would not lose any seats. Actually attacked in a different way to how Dugdale has been treated for refusing to admit that Labour is not going to win in Scotland. He was attacked on the basis "This is incompetent because everyone knows that as part of the game you play down your chances of winning to manage expectations."<br /><br />But, we all know that had Corbyn said, its going to be difficult, we may lose x number of seats, the same people would have attacked him for that and said "He doesn't even believe himself that Labour can do well."<br /><br />Its a bit like Kengate. I'm sure that the Blair-rights and Tory media think that its going to play into their hands and sink the Labour vote so as to open the door to the palace coup they have been plotting. In the case of the Tory media that is probably as much about having something to gossip about and fill the 24 hour news channels with, as just a desire to have one of their own back in charge of the LP.<br /><br />But, I'm not sure its going to work for them, any more than the Tories attempts to brand Saddiq Khan as a Muslim extremist, anti-semite is going to work either. The Blair-rights claim that people on the doorsteps are saying that unless Labour deals with the anti-semitism they will never vote Labour again. Really?<br /><br />For all the years I have been involved in politics, and believe me politics also gets talked about a lot in our house, my wife who has suffered through it all for more than 40 years, said to me the other day, "What's Anti-Semitism? Its the first I've heard about it over the last few days!"Boffyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08157650969929097569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-31079928031055065782016-05-03T23:19:59.680+01:002016-05-03T23:19:59.680+01:00If I didn't have anything else to hold against...If I didn't have anything else to hold against Chris Bambery, I'd hate him for using that acronym - 'ISG' to me will always signify the good comrades of Soc Res (which I nearly joined myself at one stage). Speaking of acronyms, I was amused to discover that what's left of Solidarity is now trading as the Socialist Party Scotland or SPS, <b>not</b> to be confused with the SSP - couldn't they think of anything else to call themselves?<br /><br />I don't think any of this matters a damn to Labour's chances, though.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07009879034507926661noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-38751466623341236272016-05-03T22:11:15.770+01:002016-05-03T22:11:15.770+01:00Just said over on SU the Left Nationalists have su...Just said over on SU the Left Nationalists have sucked up all the good ones willing to go out and preach the word, pity the are preaching crap. Keza has just hang on and then totally restructure a branch system that is reminiscent of the Rotten Boroughs of English History. Labours first job is to destroy the ISG & SSP enterprise of RISE-Scotlandjim mcleannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-831714168227689082016-05-03T22:09:52.605+01:002016-05-03T22:09:52.605+01:00Sounds about right to me, although I'm concern...Sounds about right to me, although I'm concerned that Brexit could boost UKIP overall and that enough incumbent councillors are vulnerable on local issues (in part due to central government cuts of local government funding). So I am still worried about the council seat situation.<br /><br />And in the dark moments I fear Zac sneaking a win and British politics taking another step towards a racist politics modeled on the FN over the Channel.Metatonenoreply@blogger.com