tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post8165573799267141631..comments2024-03-27T09:14:27.496+00:00Comments on All That Is Solid ...: Not Pulling the Trigger in Stoke CentralPhilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06298147857234479278noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-84271205656449872312019-10-02T16:57:35.000+01:002019-10-02T16:57:35.000+01:00Ah, our "anonymous" concern troll is bac...Ah, our "anonymous" concern troll is back for a bit more concern trolling.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-47654615091435831532019-10-01T23:13:24.804+01:002019-10-01T23:13:24.804+01:00Phil - You often write 'May's miserable de...Phil - You often write 'May's miserable deal', as if some deal would be fantastic:, but political positioning up to now aside, what is there in the deal to object to? Debts are paid, the Irish backstop means we default to remaining but with no vote (not in itself a sensible aim, but not economically terrible) in the unlikely event that we cant negotiate our way to any of the actual trade deal options like Norway or Canada, and the rights of EU citizens are protected. It'll only be a Tory Brexit if the Tories get to negotiate during the transition period, otherwise it'll be a Labour Brexit. <br />Johnson has united the Leave vote, Labour's only hope of uniting the Remain vote was to give it nowhere to go and whip for May's deal, once May had gone, and before a GE. Moreover that would have split the Tories, with the ERG crying betrayal and Farage campaigning for repudiation.<br /><br />I can't see even the most energetic campaign saving them now<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-34918107473296139582019-10-01T12:25:56.978+01:002019-10-01T12:25:56.978+01:00"most folk locally think the MP in Stoke Cent..."most folk locally think the MP in Stoke Central has worked out fine"<br /><br />I doubt the majority of Labour voters in his constituency, 60% of whom back Remain, think his right-wing nationalist politics of voting with the Tories for a hard brexit, and to keep the Tories in power think he's worked out fine!!!<br /><br />We'll see at the GE. But, given that Labour's poll share was 50%, and 60% of that 50% support Remain, and support for Remain amongst Remain voters is hardening, then that means that of that 50%, 30% constitutes Remain supporters.<br /><br />If all of that 30% went to the Liberals, it would put them on 38%, and drop labour to 20%. Even if the Tories pick up no additional Brexit votes, their 45% would be enough for a clear win in Stoke central. If, only half of those Labour Remain voters switch to the Liberals, it drops Labour to 35%, raising the Liberals to around 23%, again allowing the Tories to win a clear majority with their 45%.<br /><br />But, in fact, it only requires 20% of the Labour remain supporters to switch to the Liberals for the Tories to win. That drops Labour to 44%, raises the Liberals to around 14% and again lets the Tories win with their 45%.<br /><br />Given that surveys show that 60% of labour's 2017 vote will not vote Labour in the enxt election, I'd say these latter scenrios are extremely conservative in the devastation that is going to be inflicted on Labour in seats like Stoke, where its Remain supporters will desert in droves to the Liberals, letting in the Tories. The same calculations apply in Stoke North. A look at what is happening in Wales with the surge in support for Plaid, and in Scotland where Labour will be annihilated by the NP, indicates what will happen in England, but with the liberals picking up those Labour votes.<br /><br />This could take Labour back to the kind of position it was in in the first half of the 20th century.Boffyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08157650969929097569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-34124907797858715592019-10-01T12:02:53.578+01:002019-10-01T12:02:53.578+01:00Campaigned for him through gritted teeth and he lo...Campaigned for him through gritted teeth and he lost me when he won the election by an ill chosen remarks.if he stands again here he will lose the election.<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-77093188783778962502019-10-01T11:43:20.897+01:002019-10-01T11:43:20.897+01:00Why all the fuss- Councillors have to put their na...Why all the fuss- Councillors have to put their name forward to considered again each term. Most of them also get elected again- despite some differences they may or may not have with some local members etc. Good practice I think. I live in Stoke on Trent and I am a party member albeit not the same constituency as this MP- most folk locally think the MP in Stoke Central has worked out fine. BTW, thanks again Phil for a good read.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-82696519677507718722019-09-30T13:46:35.369+01:002019-09-30T13:46:35.369+01:00Its also an indication of how Lansman's undemo...Its also an indication of how Lansman's undemocratic Momentum company is pretty useless and probably in decline. It shows the real left in the Labour Party needs pretty damn quick to get itself organised democratically and effectively.Boffyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08157650969929097569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-4683100303362756662019-09-30T13:39:36.429+01:002019-09-30T13:39:36.429+01:00It sounds like what Stoke Central comrades are loo...It sounds like what Stoke Central comrades are looking for is a social worker rather than a principled socialist politician! No wonder Labour and working-class politics is in such a god awful condition.Boffyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08157650969929097569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-59268115538688488642019-09-30T09:13:28.378+01:002019-09-30T09:13:28.378+01:00Excellent analysis Phil.
It provides yet more evid...Excellent analysis Phil.<br />It provides yet more evidence of why Open Selection every parliament is needed rather than this negative and personalised trigger ballot process.<br />Pat B. Patrick Byrnehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07764228110827133848noreply@blogger.com