tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post6626523167858520415..comments2024-03-29T09:14:53.583+00:00Comments on All That Is Solid ...: Why Did the Pundits Get the Election Wrong?Philhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06298147857234479278noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-47454593214329306982017-06-11T20:55:19.174+01:002017-06-11T20:55:19.174+01:00I just need to remind you, if you think that YouGo...I just need to remind you, if you think that YouGov was one of your reputable poll companies, that their last poll was ridiculous. Mysteriously they changed their methodology and gave the Tory party 7 point lead. They have since, of course, taken it off their front page. The polling companies have been appalling, because they too lack any social imagination.<br />https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/final-call-poll-tories-seven-points-and-set-increa/Braingrasshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12859826435710133646noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-69677587230765657942017-06-11T16:05:08.700+01:002017-06-11T16:05:08.700+01:00To be fair, many within the party didn't expec...To be fair, many within the party didn't expect the result on Thursday.<br /><br />I saw lots of comments from members and activists expecting the worst, particularly in the North and Midlands (where we did lose seats). The polls certainly narrowed over the final 2 weeks of the campaign but even at the end it looked likely the Tories would get a decent sized majority. Reading the press over the last couple of days, it seems our HQ wasnt expecting some of the swings and results that happened on the night.<br />My own experience didnt fill me with great optimism as 2 locally held seats were thought to be under great pressure, while winning a Tory marginal was considered to be possibility but a bit of a stretch. I didnt sense any great surge towards us when out campaigning, nor did fellow activists. In the end all 3 seats were comfortably won.<br />There's a lot of unpicking of the data and analysis required before we get to a full understanding of just how we arrived at the result we got. <br /><br />Steve Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-35447083606739937202017-06-11T13:21:12.888+01:002017-06-11T13:21:12.888+01:00It's most likely both. The polls that were cor...It's most likely both. The polls that were correct at the end of the election were the ones that adjusted their turnout model to reflect the increased youth vote. So, the polls 6 weeks ago were underestimating labour support amongst likely voters. But that doesn't explain the entire picture, labour definitely managed to get its message across more effectively during the election than in the previous 2 years, probably through a combination of legally enforced neutrality of the media and normal people deciding to pay attention so they could make the right decision.<br /><br />All of these things were possible to predict ahead of time, and many corbyn supporters actually did. That most commentators and pundits missed it demonstrates their mediocrity.Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15737014287514641441noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-26353849713065055592017-06-10T22:38:07.941+01:002017-06-10T22:38:07.941+01:00It may seem an odd point, but I wonder if the poll...It may seem an odd point, but I wonder if the polls that told May that the Tories were ahead 6 weeks ago by 20% were wrong? Or has the gap been massively closed over the 6 weeks since? Josephnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-64793667439820891342017-06-10T11:03:01.025+01:002017-06-10T11:03:01.025+01:00Or even just a remotely empathetic imagination. Me...Or even just a remotely empathetic imagination. Media reactions still, two days or so on, dominated by the notion that Brexit was the big hammer; completely ignoring e.g. the idea that all sorts of people might be experiencing all sorts of issues and vulnerabilities in a way that the Lab emphasis on public services connects with.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-66850378196991128382017-06-10T10:21:54.750+01:002017-06-10T10:21:54.750+01:00I didn't get it wrong. I set out On Wednesday...I didn't get it wrong. I set out <a href="https://boffyblog.blogspot.co.uk/2017/06/for-many-not-few.html" rel="nofollow">On Wednesday</a>, why Labour would win. Well Labour didn't actually win, but the Tories certainly lost, the other parties, including the SNP have been consigned to the dustbin of history, and in Marxist terms that distinguishes appearance from reality, Labour did win.<br /><br />Labour won a moral victory. Labour won because the right/soft-left opponents of Corbyn have been proved wrong, and equally consigned to the dustbin of history. Labour won because it secured this vote despite the internal sabotage and the unprecedented Tory media attacks on Corbyn. Labour won, because it has mobilised the votes of millions of young people that the Tories, media and Labour Right have continually insisted would never bother to vote. Labour won, because it has drawn those millions of young people into activity, and not just protest activity like the SWP does of simply marching, or even striking, but into actual political activity, real class struggle activity, that posits the political interests of the working-class against those of capital, as opposed to just the immediate economic interests of workers. Labour won, because even Corbyn's opponents have now had to accept that the momentum is massively in Labour's direction, and in the direction of the left-wing of Labour.<br /><br />That's a string of correct predictions I've had as against the professional pundits. I predicted the collapse of the Liberals in 2015, the victory of Leave in the Referendum, and of Trump in the US elections. Its good this time to not only have got the prediction correct as against all of the professional pundits, but for it to be a correct prediction that shows history now moving in a progressive direction.<br /><br />I look forward to making lots more such correct predictions of the forward march of history.Boffyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08157650969929097569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-28023814293520540122017-06-10T07:59:47.345+01:002017-06-10T07:59:47.345+01:00Yes, having a sociological imagination is crucial....Yes, having a sociological imagination is crucial. It is always important to go beyond the 'common sense' assumptions we build up through our daily interactions with the social world. To paraphrase Marx, if things were the way they appear, we wouldn't need science. Going beyond the 'taken for granted' (being critical) is hard work. It demands seeking evidence and often pits you against others, who want you to confirm their prejudices/world view, not confound it. <br /><br />This applies to Kuenssberg & Dimbleby etc. I watched BBC Election Night on Thursday night/Friday morning. It was caught in a time warp. They wheeled in Jack Straw, Mingus Campbell and other has-been senior politicians who were equally unable to explain what was happening. Dimbleby, in particular, does a good impression of the daft lad at the back of the class - the buffoon who shouts out nonsensical questions - just to get attention. Like you say, this lot were clueless, they had no understanding beyond a formatted view that sought explanation through looking at the youth vote or national identity but denied even a rudimentary class analysis. <br /><br />Even a cursory glance at the web site Britain Elects, which has been tracking poling averages, clearly shows a massive Corbyn surge since early May. Or a butchers at Oddsmaker, which would have told them that by Wednesday the hot money was being placed on a hung parliament, when the odds really started to drop.Dialectician1noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-10261066325207878882017-06-10T07:47:53.096+01:002017-06-10T07:47:53.096+01:00Survation did pretty well in predicting the result...Survation did pretty well in predicting the result. I saw nothing about sociological imagination on their website. Is it possible that - like most practicioners of minority fields of study - your analysis is too restricted? Blinkers, rather than microscopes? James Semplehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01680969214027391169noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-13140282029808943922017-06-09T16:55:50.899+01:002017-06-09T16:55:50.899+01:00Your second paragraph raises a very good point. Th...Your second paragraph raises a very good point. The 'Cultural Capital' of many poor working class areas is a false one. i.e structured by simplistic media narratives which form their identity, a false sense of self worth which is structured by hatred of false targets. Just think of tabloid headlines as a reference.<br /><br />The way to counter this is partly through information and partly through lessening inequality, as less inequality means less status competition.<br /><br />I personally found the areas Labour did well were very predictable by just applying basic sociological intuition/assumptions. This could be tested too.<br /><br />Indeed I listened to a Radio 4 discussion you were on well over a year ago. It was way too broad brush an approach on issues, predictions and as such highly prone too error. I suspect for many on the panel much has been learned since. Badennoreply@blogger.com