tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post4599106094880707697..comments2024-03-27T09:14:27.496+00:00Comments on All That Is Solid ...: The Newport West By-ElectionPhilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06298147857234479278noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-7802330822678021792019-04-07T18:17:35.125+01:002019-04-07T18:17:35.125+01:00Boffy,
i get the distinct impression your analysis...Boffy,<br />i get the distinct impression your analysis is biased towards remain.<br />i have read a lot of your posts on here and you have a tendency to be pertial.<br />you are. of course entitled to your view, however you need to wind your neck in, read the original post back several times before giving a considered view on the author's articleAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-34785238977582438342019-04-07T16:51:49.401+01:002019-04-07T16:51:49.401+01:00My blog post on Newport West is now available here...My blog post on Newport West is <a href="https://boffyblog.blogspot.com/2019/04/brexit-and-newport-west.html" rel="nofollow">now available here</a>.Boffyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08157650969929097569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-24494390901324879352019-04-07T12:29:12.267+01:002019-04-07T12:29:12.267+01:00I've analysed Newport in more detail in a blog...I've analysed Newport in more detail in a blog that will be appearing later this afternoon.<br /><br />One point I also make there is that analysing the change in vote share on the basis of % point change is misleading. For, example, Labour's vote share dropped by 12.7 points. But, this represents a % fall not of 12.7%, but of 24.28%, i.e. Labour's original vote share was 52.3%, and 12.7 is 24.28% of 52.3. Likewise, Plain's vote share rose by 2.5 points, but this represents a 100% rise in their vote share from 2017, and similar % rises apply to Liberals (109%), and Greens (255%).<br /><br />By measuring in terms of vote share this accounts for the usual drop in total turnout that occurs in all by-elections compared to General Elections. The worry, for Labour is clearly that if in General Election, these kinds of % rise in the votes of Remain parties were to continue, i.e. doubling and trebling the actual vote in size, particularly if they were able to field a single Remain supporting candidate, Labour's majority would be wiped out, and the seat would go to whoever the Remain camp selected as its standard bearer, even in a Labour stronghold like newport West.Boffyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08157650969929097569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-10468803415476228662019-04-06T23:49:41.645+01:002019-04-06T23:49:41.645+01:00Good piece. It might be interesting to look at the...Good piece. It might be interesting to look at the actual votes cast rather than concentrate on vote shares.<br />Newport West Elections 2017 & 2019<br /><br />Votes<br /> 2017 2019 Change % Change<br />Labour 22,723 9,308 -13,415 -59.0<br />Conservative 17,065 7,357 -9,708 -56.9<br />UKIP 1,100 2,023 +923 +83.9<br />Plaid Cymru 1,077 1,185 +108 +10.0<br />Liberal Democrat 976 1,088 +112 +11.5<br />Green 497 924 +427 +85.9<br />Renew - 879 +879 -<br />Abolish the Welsh Assembly - 205 205 -<br />SDP - 202 +202 -<br />Democrats and Veterans - 185 +185 -<br />For Britain - 159 +159 -<br />Total 43,438 23,515 -19,923 -45.9<br />Electorate 64,399 63,623 <br /> <br /><br />1. Ignore changes to the electorate due to deaths and new voters coming on to the roll, ie treat the electorates in the two elections as the same.<br />2 Assume further that everyone who voted in 2017 either voted or abstained in 2019 and that people who abstained in 2017 also abstained in 2019. <br />3 Assume that in 2019 all parties other than Lab and Cons kept their 2017 voters and added to them either from former Cons or lab voterss. The only switching that took place between 2017 and 2019 was from Lab or Cons to other parties. There was no switching between Cons and Lab and no switching between the other parties.<br />4. Assume, following Curtice, that the Cons “lost” switchers to “leave” parties and that Labour “lost” votes to Remain parties. <br /><br />Conservatives<br /><br />UKIP drew its extra votes, and the new parties run by ex-UKIP people - Abolish, Dems and vets, For Britain -, plus the SDP drew all their votes from former Cons voters.<br />Thus, of the 9,708 voters who backed the Cons in 2017 but did not back them in 2019, a maximum of 1,674 “switched” to leave parties, while the remainder (8,034 abstained. Put another way, of the voters who abandoned the Cons between 2017 and 2019, just over 17% switched, while the other 83% abstained.<br /><br />Labour<br /><br />In 2019, Renew was the only new remain party standing. It picked up the bulk of the increased vote going to remain parties. If Curtice is right, Remain parties gained 1,526 former Labour voters, or 11.4% of the 13,415 voters who abandoned Labour between 2017 and 2019.<br /><br />It MAY be that 2107 Labour and Cons voters sat on their hands in 2019 because of the Brexit policies of their parties. But, even using the limiting assumptions made above, their disgust was not enough to make many of them switch party. <br />Dr Quelchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-66612089700634164262019-04-06T14:53:32.022+01:002019-04-06T14:53:32.022+01:00It shows increasing polarisation. If you take the...It shows increasing polarisation. If you take the Brexit supporting parties - Labour, Tories, UKIP - their vote share dropped by 15%, as against 2017. The vote share of the anti-Brexit parties - Liberals, Greens, Plaid, Renew - rose by 11.5%. That represents a massive swing away from Leave to Remain, in what is was a Leave voting seat, and a traditional Labour stronghold.<br /><br />It should send a clear signal to Labour that its Brexit strategy is not winning it Leave votes, but is causing it to haemorrhage its core working-class Remain supporting voters. The combined vote for the anti-Brexit candidates was 17.2%, or about half Labour's vote share. That is in a Labour stronghold, where many of those voting for these other parties would know they had little chance of winning.<br /><br />If, and the EP election provide a basis for this, those anti-Brexit forces come together in an anti-Brexit alliance, that 17.2% vote share could increase substantially and would do so entirely at Labour's expense. That is even before they get some national names standing as their candidates as they join up with the Small Change UK group.<br /><br />If they can do that in a safe Labour stronghold like Newport, imagine what would happen in a marginal, especially one where the Liberals, Greens, or Plaid are running a close second? The devastation awaiting Labour in Scotland, at the hands of the SNP, given Labour's continued fascination with the reactionary Brexit agenda doesn't bear thinking about, but it means any hopes that Labour had of winning a General Election are shot whilst it clings to it.Boffyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08157650969929097569noreply@blogger.com