tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post3519052288893730024..comments2024-03-29T09:14:53.583+00:00Comments on All That Is Solid ...: An Authoritarian Without AuthorityPhilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06298147857234479278noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-59750630164009429522019-03-21T11:12:40.994+00:002019-03-21T11:12:40.994+00:00"A deal can be done. Labour's customs uni..."A deal can be done. Labour's customs union approach, or the similar scheme hawked around by Nick Boles (who, nevertheless, has voted for May's deal twice and probably will do so again) has a greater chance of getting through the Commons - especially if May whipped for it in a 'it's-this-deal-or-remain' scenario."<br /><br />Except a deal cannot be done, for the reason you then state,<br /><br />"the tenuous unity just about keeping the Tories together would be torn asunder."<br /><br />In reality, May's deal, as John Heeley admitted last week is identical, in practice to Labour's proposal, because it means keeping the UK in the Customs Union and Single Market indefinitely, because no solution to the Irish Border question is possible unless that continues to be the case. As Heeley said, Labour has no argument with May's Withdrawal Agreement, because in practice it is identical - as I also said some time ago - with Labour's position. The only difference is Labour's insistence on a political statement that commits to being in the Customs Union and close to (whatever that means) the Single Market.<br /><br />But, ist precisely that that the Tory rank and file, by a majority of 80% to 20% will never agree to, and is why they even reject May's Deal, let alone Labour's requirement to codify in treaty that commitment to the CU and SM. Moreover, Labour do not just call for membership of the CU and SM, but ridiculously demand to have a seat at the table, whilst negotiating independent trade deals, rejecting free movement and so on, which the EU could never agree to.<br /><br />So, any deal that might be stitched upi in parliament would fall at the first hurdle because the EU will reject Labour's impossible demands. That would put us back to No Deal territory. Either that or, as with the equally ridiculous Common Market 2.0, EFTA EEA proposals, it would mean that Britain would have to accept being a rule taker, pay the subs, but have no seat at the table, a continuation of free movement and so on.<br /><br />In which case, how on Earth is that any improvement on simply staying in the EU??? Boffyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08157650969929097569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-64301417277004916402019-03-21T05:00:56.789+00:002019-03-21T05:00:56.789+00:00The Tories have imported the tactics employed by t...The Tories have imported the tactics employed by the DUP (and the UUP before them) into mainstream British politics. Unionist politicians were notorious for rightwing dogwhistling.<br /><br />The EU and Ireland are pretty much as prepared as they could be for No Deal. Unlike London, they had been preparing since 2016. Ireland had been diversifying its economy since David Cameron announced a possible referendum back in 2013.<br /><br />Three more months would be of little benefit to the EU27, since anything that could have been done in the additional 90 days has been done already. <br /><br />Hence why the EU is basically saying they are only interested in extending the UK's membership of the Single Market and Customs Union for at least 9 months, whether as part of an A50 extension or the transition period.<br /><br />Of course the EU knows the UK on the other hand could desperately do with 90 more days, which gives the EU a lot of leverage to set terms for an extension.<br /><br />Don't discount the possibility that the EU simply shoves the UK out the door though. Brexit is clogging up the EU's political system.<br /><br />The most likely outcome is that the EU and the UK agree to a 9 month extension subject to the condition that the UK holds a general election by the end of June.1729torushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09262372962990418135noreply@blogger.com