tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post1770053582174725470..comments2024-03-29T09:14:53.583+00:00Comments on All That Is Solid ...: Brexit's Groundhog DayPhilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06298147857234479278noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-24732452689803126442019-03-15T10:28:50.261+00:002019-03-15T10:28:50.261+00:00A softer Brexit is not possible, as the EU made cl...A softer Brexit is not possible, as the EU made clear from the beginning when they said its hard Brexit or No Brexit. Theoretically, the Tories could join with Corbyn in agreeing to CU, and Single Market membership. The EU will not allow that on Corbyn's basis, as they have repeatedly stated, i.e. no seat at the table, no external trade deals, no end to free movement. If a National Government of May-Corbyn then couldn't get that, what then? back to No Deal Brexit or No Brexit.<br /><br />Politically, May or other, cannot reach across the Labour on that basis, because it would rip the Tories apart, the Tory rank and file that support No Deal, as do Tory voters by *0% to 20%, will not wear it. May would be out on her ear, just as soft Brexit Tories are facing deselection, now.<br /><br />The DUP are only interest in NI not being carved out of the UK single market/polity. They don't care if that means the UK staying in a CU etc. But, the ERG do, for the reasons set out above. There is no way of squaring the Irish circle. To keep the same regulatory regime either side of the border (tariffs are irrelevant) requires N.I. to be in the Single Market, and the backstop means therefore Britain as a whole must be in the Single Market.<br /><br />The ERG know that, which is why they cannot go along with it, because it really does mean that Britain would have to stay in the Single Market forever, or until there is a United Ireland. The EU cottoned on to the Tories duplicity, and Gove's plan to break the Treaty obligations, after Britain had exited, and so tied Britain into the CU and Single Market indefinitely, as a vassal state.<br /><br />The ERG have made it clear they will not follow Gove in pursuing the course of breaking international treaties as that would make Britain a pariah state. So, its a No Deal Brexit or No Brexit. As things stand, its No Brexit, with May having to revoke Article 50 to avoid the disaster of crashing out. My guess is that she then calls a GE, on the basis of a negotiated No Deal, and Canada FTA.Boffyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08157650969929097569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-71243203327515531652019-03-15T02:27:47.551+00:002019-03-15T02:27:47.551+00:00As you said, May's entire political project, a...As you said, May's entire political project, and quite likely the Tory government, survived by only two votes. 6 Labour MPs voted against the Benn amendment. They are objectively scabs and should have the whip removed. Darrell Kavanaghhttps://twitter.com/DarrellChalonernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-15838981790123897372019-03-14T23:27:13.045+00:002019-03-14T23:27:13.045+00:00"will it be enough to give her pause where re..."will it be enough to give her pause where repeat humiliating defeats have not?" I can only admire your optimism...Ian Gibsonnoreply@blogger.com