This quarter 289,878 votes were cast in 110 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 58 council seats changed hands. For comparison you can view Quarter One's results here.
Party
|
Number of Candidates
|
Total Vote
|
%
|
+/- Q1
|
+/- Q2 25
|
Avge/
Contest |
+/-
Seats |
Conservative
|
109
| 51,069 |
17.6%
| -0.3 |
-0.4
|
469
|
-4
|
Labour
|
95
| 40,363 |
13.9%
| -1.8 |
-3.2
| 425
|
-15
|
Lib Dem
|
94
| 55,401
|
19.1%
| +3.5 |
-2.0
|
589
|
-3
|
Reform
|
113
| 79,276
|
27.3%
| +2.1 |
+2.4
|
702
| +21
|
Green
|
106
| 46,177
|
15.9%
| +0.9
|
+5.2
|
436
|
+3
|
SNP*
|
2
| 1,035 |
0.4%
| -2.4 |
-0.8
| 518
|
+1
|
PC**
|
12
| 4,096 |
1.4%
| -0.2 |
+1.1
| 341
|
0
|
Ind***
|
40
| 10,603 |
3.7%
|
-1.3
|
265
|
-3
| |
Other****
|
11
|
0.6%
| -1.2 |
-1.1
|
168
|
0 |
* There were two by-elections in Scotland
** There were 14 by-elections in Wales
*** There were five Independent clashes
**** Other this quarter were Advance UK (28), Alliance to Liberate Scotland (13), Great Yarmouth First (866), Libertarian (3), SDP (49), Together for Bury (193), TUSC (31, 31, 15), Workers' Party of Britain (609), Your Party (20)
Not Labour's worst ever quarterly performance. Q4 2025 holds that crown, but terrible nonetheless. The signs of a turn around in Labour's fortunes in the last week of June were too late to make an impact, except for maybe saving a couple of seats here and there. Apart from that, this is reflective of the new normal in local politics. Reform dominates, the Greens are putting on support, Plaid Cymru are bossing it in Wales, and the Liberal Democrats are getting the votes - though not always the seats, as this quarter attests.
Looking ahead July is going to be a very busy month, and a handful of by-elections have so far been set for September. August is looking like a fallow time. It's fair to say Labour will do better in the quarter to come, but for how long depends on the kind of leadership it offers. Being more relatable than Keir Starmer is no tall order for anyone, but its the policies that matter. By the end of the period we'll know which Andy Burnham has turned up, and council by-elections will reflect that accordingly.
Image Credit
«Being more relatable than Keir Starmer is no tall order for anyone, but its the policies that matter.»
ReplyDeleteSome people do vote on personalities, and on identities and values, but for most people the biggest issue in their life is their interests and in particular policies about their property interests: New Labour cannot be at the same time on the side of "liberal" incumbent occupiers and landlords (and those who profit from them) who want higher housing incomes and on the side of "trot" upgraders and renters who want lower housing costs.
Indeed New Labour since Blair has been on the side of the incumbents except for the few years when Corbyn stole New Labour from Mandelson with the help of hundreds of thousands of Labour entrysts.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/dec/22/labour-targets-new-swing-voter-middle-aged-mortgage-man
“Party sees identifying 50-year-old male home-owners as key to electoral success this archetypical voter as male, 50 years old, without a university degree but with a decent job in the private sector and, crucially, a homeowner with a mortgage.”
https://averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com/2020/05/the-dim-wattage-of-thangam-debbonaire.html
“I raised the problematic policy on my CLP Facebook group. I was stunned by the support for the policy from the countless landlords who were Party members! "I can't afford to give my tenants a rent holiday" "This is my pension, I'll go bust" etc etc. Absolutely stunning. I had no idea how many private landlords there were in the Party. Kinda explains a lot...”
But being on the side of incumbent proprietors is not enough: can New Labour restart the boom in house prices and rents?
That is the big question that Burnham needs to ponder: if there is little chance of winning back the votes of proprietors with a renewed boom in their incomes redistributed via property from the lower classes maybe he can decide to switch to being on the side of upgraders and tenants and switch to the Labour party. We can always dream.