That Nigel Farage, he's proven himself a dab hand at politics. Having replaced the Conservatives as the main party of the right, at least in the opinion polls, he said he was coming for Labour. And a number's been done on them too. Their figures are the worst ever while Keir Starmer's personal ratings sit somewhere between Liz Truss's and Vladimir Putin's. Even more unbelievably, it's only recently that the very clever politics brains the Prime Minister employs have come to the conclusion that challenging Farage's politics might be a good idea. Having spent the last few years caving to his framing. The result? Farage riding high on a bubble of popular support. Sure, Reform are stealing a march on the politics of anti-immigration and race, but can they convince as many people that they - the party that successfully defended the sovereignty of sterling - care about the pounds in their pockets?
It's telling, but not surprising that the champion of Brexit chose the City as the venue for his big economics speech. The symbolism will not be lost on the oligarchs who are now assessing Farage's suitability as the political custodian of their interests. And it's these people, not the downtrodden little men that comprise his usual audience, he wanted to address. The most eye-catching item in his list of promises was not the rowing back of the ridiculous tax cuts promised previously ("they were only ever aspirations"), but his desire to put the screws on young people. "The minimum wage is too high", and poor businesses are suffering. Cutting it would boost aspiration. Either that, or employers' National Insurance Contributions should be cut by lifting the cap at which they should be paid. It's a good job Reform's imaginary army of enthusiastic young people are imaginary, otherwise they would be in the process of evaporating.
Farage said he would abolish George Osborne's - and now Labour's child benefit cap. But only for British nationals, and only if both parents were working. In other words, those most in need would lose out. He also wouldn't be drawn on whether to keep the triple lock on pensions, which usually indicates that yes, they are thinking of tinkering with it in some way. A reminder that the state pension here is still weaker than it is in Ireland, Germany, France, Denmark, etc despite the upratings the lock has delivered these last 15 years. While we're on pensions, having consumed many a Telegraph editorial, Farage thinks he can clamp down on spending by attacking the "gold plated" schemes public sector workers apparently enjoy. Also, disabilities are "over-diagnosed", so more penny pinching and cruelty is being plotted against the most vulnerable people in our communities.
Gruel for the little people. But treats for the rich. The pledge to reverse Labour's land tax on the rural rich made the cut, as did a promise to abolish inheritance tax on family-owned businesses. He argued that Britain operates a punitive tax regime that drives successful people abroad. Out of the ether, he pulled the example of £100k/year "young professionals" leaving these shores. He knew none of his adoring stenographers would ask him how those fleeing abroad would take those jobs with them. There were the ritual assaults on net zero, and he took aim at diversity and inclusion policies. Recalling his time as a metals trader during the 1980s, he said no one cared about race, religion, or gender on the famously diverse commodities floor. There were, after all, blond white men, bald white men, dark haired white men.
What is striking about his speech is the dropping of anything approaching the populism, however you define it. Farage has made a solemn vow that regardless of the rhetoric and the chaos, he has no plans whatsoever to reshape Britain's political economy. Which isn't a surprise, seeing as his party are as much affected by the crisis in mainstream politics as the rest. What he presented is pure and simple Tory economics, a programme openly dedicated not to driving GDP growth, increasing employment, and doing the things responsible helmsmen of British capitalism are supposed to do. This is the economics of strengthening class relations by throwing more people off social security and onto the job market without support, while driving down the wages and conditions of young people who subsist on the minimum wage. It's not difficult to work out who benefits from this. The political of Farage's economy also owes more to the miserly managerialism of Rishi Sunak than the bombast of fellow "populist" Boris Johnson. As per the last Tory government, Farage is promising a smaller state not to meet his ideological peccadilloes but to try and manage the politics. People demand less if the state is underfunded, run down, and barely works. For all intents and purposes, Farage has stolen the Conservatives' prospectus. Reform is set on becoming a Tory home from home.
At the same time, this leaves Farage vulnerable. We've seen in recent weeks that overt racism can damage Reform. Most of the public aren't on board with his anti-Net Zero drivel, and Farage's murky finances and penchant for Russian talking points are hanging round his neck like a 300lb albatross. This City speech is also a political liability, as he unambiguously paints which side he is on. And it's not the one most of his support think it is. Pathetically, both Labour and the Tories have attacked his plans as "unworkable" and spun a weave of boring, technocratic reasons why they won't work. But Farage has made himself uncharacteristically vulnerable by painting a target on his rather large weak spot. He's conceded populist ground where, should they choose, the Greens, the left, and the labour movement can have him.
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