tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post8284106564534811164..comments2024-03-29T09:14:53.583+00:00Comments on All That Is Solid ...: Bordering on the RidiculousPhilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06298147857234479278noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-27672251855631327182017-12-06T09:58:35.230+00:002017-12-06T09:58:35.230+00:00It's all very well crowing over the uselessnes...It's all very well crowing over the uselessness of Theresa May's government but if there's an election any time soon (courtesy of the DUP) then Corbyn will have a massive problem on his hands which Labour really hasn't yet addressed. We're trying to hold together different sections of our voters who have completely different views on Brexit, and as Brexit is the single biggest practical issue at present, that's a massive problem. Personally I think if Corbyn's elected in 2020 he should release all the expert forecasts on the devastation to the economy that Brexit would case, spell out when that means in terms of cuts to public services AND PENSIONS, and then say "so obviously we're not going to do it." Sod the referendum. By 2020 several million Leave voters will have died and several million new remainers will have turned 18. <br /><br />Corbyn's biggest problem would be if the DUP decide to bring down the government a lot sooner. And that's far more possible than English academic Marxists would imagine. If you've not been around Christian Fundamentalists (I used to be one!) you really don't understand how different their entire mindset is. Remember Samson pulling down the temple? They positively admire unreasonableness, and can quote scriptures in support of that position.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-80851242762081151652017-12-05T20:20:51.627+00:002017-12-05T20:20:51.627+00:00Roll on a united Ireland and an end to the DUP hol...Roll on a united Ireland and an end to the DUP holding the country to ransom and trousering a billion quid in return for propping up the Tories. Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18097624792336619525noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-69454878271206676472017-12-05T10:58:39.808+00:002017-12-05T10:58:39.808+00:00I don't think the UK, when it leaves, can stay...I don't think the UK, when it leaves, can stay in the Customs Union even if it wanted to, and I'm not sure it needs to. "Continued regulatory alignment" or, if you prefer, "no regulatory divergence" is more within the sphere of the internal/single market in so far is it enables the kind of frictionless trade the RoI/NI border needs to maintain.<br /><br />And if the UK deems it necessary to stay in the SM via the EEA via application for EFTA membership then it is entirely possible to negotiate a specific customs union agreement with the EU that covers the areas where such an agreement is necessary to continue the soft border. EFTA members in the EEA can and do negotiate trade deals independently of the EU despite what many continue to erroneously say.<br /><br />The problem for Treeza is, she made it a red line in her A50 notification but, as we have seen already, red lines have been crossed. Her problem as ever, and as this post re-iterates, is the hard Brexit head bangers in her own party but, as has also been said many times elsewhere, they will never be happy with whatever deal is done.Gulliver Foylehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06895810504041451255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-20062072020416496272017-12-05T09:48:36.416+00:002017-12-05T09:48:36.416+00:00Let's suppose that we end up in an EEA-like po...Let's suppose that we end up in an EEA-like position - Canada-plus or the full Norway - which involves accepting a lot of the very things that UKIP and the Tory Right were campaigning against in the first place (payments to Brussels, rights of residence for EU citizens, ECJ jurisdiction). What then, politically speaking? My first thought was that it would bring UKIP back from the dead - "let's leave and do it properly this time!" - but I really don't think it would. Their whole shtick was centred on the referendum - on giving The People the right to say whether we should leave or not - so they couldn't really demand that the government do X or Y without consulting the people again. But "consult the people again!" is a lousy rallying-cry; I think an awful lot of Leave voters would take the view that we'd been there and done that. And if by some mischance we did end up with a second referendum, by this point I can't imagine that Leave would win - particularly with the government pointing out that we <b>had</b> left.<br /><br />Now suppose that the government falls (finally) and the next government steps on the brakes - not to reverse the process, you understand, just to consider the full implications of the new situation in the light of <i>cont'd p 94</i>. Again: do UKIP come back from the dead? Maybe I'm a deluded optimist (people say that about me all the time) but I can't see it. There's a hard-core UKIP vote, of course, but it's composed mainly of people who genuinely want Britain out of Europe because they genuinely hate foreigners. I think an awful lot of the Leave vote (and about 3/4 of the pre-2016 UKIP vote) would take the view "they asked us, we told 'em; it was a good laugh at the time, doesn't seem to have worked though; there you go, can't trust politicians can you?".<br /><br />Prediction: Corbyn and Starmer will manage Brexit; we'll leave but keep some of the benefits of membership (EEA or EEA+); in another 15 years we'll be queueing up to rejoin, Schengen, euro and all.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07009879034507926661noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-79843327927285029242017-12-04T22:55:55.333+00:002017-12-04T22:55:55.333+00:00"Incredibly, it appears May had forgot her pa...<i>"Incredibly, it appears May had forgot her party are in hock to Arlene Foster to get the rest of their business through the House and prematurely announced a deal had been reached with the EU on that basis. Cue mayhem. And, as it happens, the DUP vetoed it. Cue no deal."</i><br /><br />Yeah, right. The Tories were trying to 'bounce' the DUP (not for the first time), just as they did to the Lib Dems several times while in coalition. <br /><br />But the thing about the DUP is that (a) they have something we might call a backbone and (b) whereas the Lib Dems were willing to bend right over for the Tories in order to make their long-desired Coalition work, the DUP has had its knuckles hardened through years of seriously strenuous political streetfighting across the Irish Sea. The DUP isn't going to be cowed by a shambolic chancer like Theresa May or her band of sinister deadbeats.<br /><br />Poor Theresa. Lie down with dogs, get up with fleas. Or lie down with rabid dogs, and try to get up on what's left of your knees, more like.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com