tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post7544396080746450603..comments2024-03-27T09:14:27.496+00:00Comments on All That Is Solid ...: Bringing Up the BodiesPhilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06298147857234479278noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-77746305016127680412021-04-29T05:24:27.995+01:002021-04-29T05:24:27.995+01:00Actually Australia, China and Vietnam have all sea...Actually Australia, China and Vietnam have all sealed their external borders (and Australia its internal borders too) – there's a reason why the #strandedaussies hashtag exists!<br /><br />Perhaps you have an issue with the UK's current half-hearted approach to the borders (which is a great way of pandering to racism and xenophobia, but won't suffice to actually keep out any vaccine-busting variant if one were to exist) and thus decided for some reason to deny that border control is important at all?<br /><br />No country in Europe has managed to make test/trace/isolate really work to contain this virus – for it to actually be effective you need an essentially Orwellian level of surveillance, as seen in China and South Korea. And South Korea is still nowhere near "fully open". There's a reason why (after Victoria's quarantine hotel screw-up last August) all Australian states bar NSW abandoned containment in favour of complete elimination.George Cartyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12170378024031141482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-53654318142542121612021-04-28T17:52:49.466+01:002021-04-28T17:52:49.466+01:00«And the factor that determines whether "zero...«<i>And the factor that determines whether "zero Covid" is possible in any given country is "can we impose 14-day quarantine on 100% of those who enter the country, including our own returning citizens?" Australia and New Zealand are isolated enough that they are capable of sealing their borders [...]</i>»<br /><br />The point about borders is ridiculous: China and Vietnam have enormous and porous borders and yet they have very low sickness and death rates. The key is not closing the borders, it is keeping the borders and the domestic areas fully open with no restrictions but with test-trace-isolate both at the borders and internally.<br /><br />The choices are simple: isolate *everybody* and seal the borders, and accept high rates of sickness and ruin several sectors from entertainment to universities, or test everybody and isolate only those who test positive and their contacts, and keep going. Since isolating *everybody* is a problem, that becomes a half-baked policy, which however is compatible with thatcherism.<br /><br />«<i>It would not be possible for mainland European countries to do that: if they tried to impose Australian-style border policies then people would sneak back in regardless on a myriad of minor back roads.</i>»<br /><br />That is also ridiculous: Australia, China and Vietnam are huge to enormous countries, and yet they have have had no need to seal their internal borders, never mind their external ones.<br />If there is an issue with mainland Europe is that there are many different jurisdictions, which is like China, but without a strong federal level like China has. But given that there is the EU, that could be done at the EU level (but may need some new treaty to allow coordination probably, but I think the Schengen treaties already cover that). But that excuse does not apply to the UK.<br /><br />«<i>That isn't the case for the UK, which depends on about 10,000 trucks a day crossing the Channel.</i>»<br /><br />The truck traffic can be handled in many ways, including testing the drivers, or tracing and testing their contacts otherwise, the goal is to minimize the need to trace and isolate, rather than to completely eliminate it by sealing completely the border:<br /><br />https://www.antwerpxl.com/2021/03/10/port-of-dover-post-brexit-freight-traffic-exceeds-300000-trucks-since-1-january/<br />“Hauliers travelling to France that have spent less than 48 hours in the UK no longer require a Covid-19 test prior to departure.”<br /><br />According to this during 2020 in the 2nd quarter there were 446k vehicles travelling, so around 4,000-5,000 per day, and that can be easily handled, given a will and funding, or just cut, as in the several weeks after the end of the transition period, and "the economy" survived:<br /><br />https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/road-goods-vehicles-travelling-to-europeBlissexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-77208671715906794782021-04-28T08:39:02.423+01:002021-04-28T08:39:02.423+01:00Blissex,
Actually there very much is a trade-off ...Blissex,<br /><br />Actually there very much <i>is</i> a trade-off between deaths and jobs, once you remove the "zero Covid" countries from your analysis. And the factor that determines whether "zero Covid" is possible in any given country is "can we impose 14-day quarantine on 100% of those who enter the country, including our own returning citizens?"<br /><br />Australia and New Zealand are isolated enough that they are capable of sealing their borders to the necessary extent. Taiwan is too, aided by the fact that it is in a state of war with its corresponding "mainland".<br /><br />It would not be possible for mainland European countries to do that: if they tried to impose Australian-style border policies then people would sneak back in regardless on a myriad of minor back roads. And even the UK's island status isn't particular significant, as the Channel is narrow enough that it can be crossed with only a rudimentary level of seamanship, as demonstrated by all those illegal immigrants in makeshift boats.<br /><br />Plus there's the issue of trade: Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand did all their international trade by easily-securable means. Container ship crews need never leave their vessels, while air crews can be isolated within the airport until they fly out again.<br /><br />That isn't the case for the UK, which depends on about 10,000 trucks a day crossing the Channel. Setting up a system where all trucks change drivers at the border to ensure no persons cross it (as China and Vietnam did at their common border) would be prohibited given the volume of trucks involved.George Cartyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12170378024031141482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-59882276573745970842021-04-27T12:31:41.907+01:002021-04-27T12:31:41.907+01:00«But if Johnson is found out for saying thousands ...«<i>But if Johnson is found out for saying thousands of dead are a price worth paying for avoiding another lockdown, then the whole edifice of the pandemic looks less an honest response to unprecedented difficulties and more a deliberate contrivance riddled with hubris and fault.</i>»<br /><br />I cannot understand the current outrage: death rates greater than zero are obviously very acceptable to most voters, be them on the road, building tunnels, because of flu in "normal" years, etc.<br /><br />For me the current outrage is just yet another distraction, yet another example of the wholly reaganista/thatcherite "individualist" framing of lockdowns/vaccines adopted by both Conservatives and New New Labour.<br /><br />The real issue is not deaths-vs-jobs, lockdown hard-vs-soft, but the ideological avoidance of a public health response to the epidemic, based on test-trace-isolate, which has resulted in negligible sickeness rates and GDP issues in the non-reaganista/thatcherite countries that adopted it, because the elites of those (capitalist) countries don't feel obliged to uphold the truthiness that “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are ‘I'm from the government, and I'm here to help’”.Blissexnoreply@blogger.com