tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post6712157874635242987..comments2024-03-27T09:14:27.496+00:00Comments on All That Is Solid ...: On the Stoke Central By-Election CandidatesPhilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06298147857234479278noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-77296507228258236322017-02-03T16:18:15.603+00:002017-02-03T16:18:15.603+00:00There is absolutely no evidence of that being true...There is absolutely no evidence of that being true. Farage called on his base to turn up to the Supreme Courts, the gutter press were calling the judges enemies of the people, and they were being whipped up into a belief that the Court would stop Brexit. Still they didn't turn up. Reason they just aren't that arsed about it, as all surveys and polls show.<br /><br />62% say they are not prepared to suffer ANY loss of living standards simply to reduce immigration. And, this sizeable vote you talk about represented a vote to leave of only around 27% of people aged 16 and over. A large proportion of those that voted Leave are geriatrics in their 80's and 90's, who think that the world map is still painted in the red of the British Empire, and who could vote as they did because they will not live long enough to see any of the disastrous consequences.<br /><br />In fact, a large number of them have already croaked since they voted, so who knows whether the slim majority for leave even exists now or not? Certainly few of those geriatrics are going to be getting out their zimmer frames to go and cause chaos on the streets of the capital.<br /><br />I'm far more concerned about all those 16 -40 year olds who will actually suffer the consequences of the vote, and who where they could voted everywhere in the country overwhelmingly for Remain. They are also the future Labour voters, who are being turned away by the party.Boffyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08157650969929097569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-75319631314982916282017-02-03T11:56:20.514+00:002017-02-03T11:56:20.514+00:00Boffy wrote >There would not be the big social ...Boffy wrote >There would not be the big social unrest that the Brexiteers claim if Parliament did not vote for Brexit.<<br /><br />Are you kidding? There would be an explosion of Brexiteer indignation. Jo Cox type incidents x 100. It would enable right wing Brexiteers to cloak themselves in the garb of 'injured democrats' and 'commie Corbyn' Labour as the ones who had trashed the referendum vote. If you buck a democratic vote of this size and scale, expect law and order problems. <br /><br />Boffy wrote >Farage promised a big protest outside the Supreme Court, but the only protesters who turned up were pro-EU not anti!<<br /><br />That's because Farage's base had won their referendum battle and didn't see the need to mobilise. But if Labour scuppers Article 50 in the Commons, that would all change.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-50521110729910167852017-02-03T11:43:36.154+00:002017-02-03T11:43:36.154+00:00Snell has already said he would not seek to block ...Snell has already said he would not seek to block Brexit IIRC.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-34791707470876046982017-02-03T08:23:35.405+00:002017-02-03T08:23:35.405+00:00Boffy: I think it is political and tactical suici...Boffy: I think it is political and tactical suicide for Corbyn's Labour to separate itself from this 65% base, and piss them off simply to assuage the 35%.<br /><br />So suddenly we have had a conversion to political pragmatism? That applies to Brexit but not immigration, presumably. Speedynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-46772704651335203652017-02-02T22:03:27.500+00:002017-02-02T22:03:27.500+00:00«65% of Labour voters voted Remain. I think it is ...«65% of Labour voters voted Remain. I think it is political and tactical suicide for Corbyn's Labour to separate itself from this 65% base, and piss them off simply to assuage the 35%.»<br /><br />I understand that and the following arguments very well, but that's a problem for the Labour Party leadership, and we are discussing here the Stoke Central by-election. Maybe the leadership position is wrong, but should the Stoke by-election fought by campaigning against the leadership position? In a constituency in which a large chunk of voters no longer automatically vote for whatever has a red rosette, and 65% of them are "Leavers"? Maybe there is a good case, but it looks risky to me.<br /><br />As to the national/electoral issue, the big problem and opportunity that Labour has got is that the 63-65% of Labour voters who voted "Remain", and the 48% that nationwide voted "Remain", are phenomenally concentrated, as there are a number of constituencies with 75% "Remain" vote and where Labour also has enormous majorities (e.g. Corbyn's):<br /><br />* The opportunity is that in those few "Remain" constituencies even losing a large chunk of Labour voters still results in a Labour win at general election time, and many people (like me...) got over the "Leave" victory.<br /><br />* The problem is that in the other constituencies the "Leave" vote also was quite strong, and the intersection with the Labour vote also quite strong. Several "Remain" MPs, including notorious T Hunt, reported exceptionally high "Leave" sentiment among Labour voters when canvassing.<br /><br />As T Hunt well said, it is a fantastically hard job to bridge the gap between cosmopolitan middle classes and marginalized low income classes. He did not add that it is one of the legacies of the extraordinary turn to the right pushed by mandelsonians during Blair's era, and it is quite unfair that J Corbyn of all people has to do the miracle, but I think that he is doing well.<br /><br />The conservatives have an even bigger long term problem, but for now they are putting on a mask of unity. Interesting times ahead.<br />Blissexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-43947694859139042352017-02-02T19:42:57.594+00:002017-02-02T19:42:57.594+00:00Unlike the Scottish Referendum result which is goi...Unlike the Scottish Referendum result which is going on and on and on most remainers have accepted the Brexit result and just want to get on with it. Most of the moaning is coming from Brexit supporters who will never be happy. Thousands take to the street over Trump, not a whiff of protest over Brexit. In relation the UKIP odds a single large bet has caused the short odds according to one site that monitors betting.jim mcleannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-43361826510631340442017-02-02T15:31:45.945+00:002017-02-02T15:31:45.945+00:00Firstly, nationally, 65% of Labour voters voted Re...Firstly, nationally, 65% of Labour voters voted Remain. I think it is political and tactical suicide for Corbyn's Labour to separate itself from this 65% base, and piss them off simply to assuage the 35%.<br /><br />Secondly, even in Stoke where the referendum vote was 65:35, we do not know what percentage of Labour voters voted Leave. Labour only polled 40% of the vote in the last GE, and the combined UKIP and Tory vote was larger. We can assume that all of the UKIP voters voted Leave, and given that Tory voters voted nationally 65:35 for leave, we might reasonably assume that in a heavily Leave area like Stoke this was more like 80:20. <br /><br />So, a large proportion of the Leave vote would be accounted for by Tory and UKIP voters. Even in Stoke, the percentage of Labour voters who voted Leave could be as low as 40%, and yet still produce the 65:35 Leave vote. Again, why would you abandon the 60%, or even 50-55% of your voters who voted Remain, to assuage a minority that voted Leave?<br /><br />Thirdly, all past opinion polls and research has shown that voters concern about the EU comes low down the list behind their concerns over jobs, NHS, housing, wages and so on. Even labour Leave voters would be unlikely to stop voting Labour, and instead vote for the Tories or UKIP, given their anti-working class policies on these more prioritised issues. Polls even now show that around 62% are not prepared to see any reduction in their standard of living from Brexit just to achieve limits on immigration - which was the main factor behind Leave.<br /><br />Ther would not be the big social unrest that the Brexiteers claim if Parliament did not vote for Brexit. Farage promised a big protest outside the Supreme Court, but the only protesters who turned up were pro-EU not anti!<br /><br />In the meantime, Labour's dog's Brexit strategy is confusing Labour voters, and sending increasing number to the alt-Tories in the Liberal Democrats, which means that it risks losing that 50-65% of Labour voters that supported Remain, and so sinking any hope of building winning majorities, whilst rehabilitating the defunct Liberals who should have been dead and buried, but whose resurrection will lead to only a plague of walking dead unable to affect anything other than to guarantee further life for the Tories. Boffyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08157650969929097569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-25300771628165815892017-02-02T11:36:41.877+00:002017-02-02T11:36:41.877+00:00«its not how much running you are doing, but wheth...«its not how much running you are doing, but whether it is to any purpose»<br /><br />It might turn out that the "purpose", or rather the unintended consequence, of campaigning for "Remain" in a 75% "Leave" constituency will be to lose the by-election and make it far more likely for Corbyn to lose the leadership.<br />I understand that the argument is that having a consistent position, and for the sake of that consistency to campaign against the «tendency to opportunism» of the party leader and 75% of the MPs, would help win the by-election, but it might be risky.<br />Blissexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-27711411499017421682017-02-02T11:23:06.843+00:002017-02-02T11:23:06.843+00:00«What is not a positive is being a committed Remai...«What is not a positive is being a committed Remainer, and then campaigning on the basis that you would any way still vote to carry through Brexit. That just sends out a very confused Labour message»<br /><br />I understand the appeal of <i>personal</i> consistency, but is G Snell prepared to campaign against the position of the Labour Party leader and of the Labour shadow minister for Europe and of 75% of the other Labour MPs?<br />Blissexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-20083797524608705332017-02-02T11:09:41.966+00:002017-02-02T11:09:41.966+00:00«at this point Labour as a party of government was...«at this point Labour as a party of government wasn't doomed»<br /><br />I subscribe to a very simplistic theory of electoral success: oppositions don't win election, governments lose them when they screw up badly, and house prices in the south drive swing voters in marginal southern constituencies.<br />When southern house prices go up the government party gets returned with a majority, when they stall or go down the opposition gets returned with a majority.<br />This simplistic theory is applicable for decades, regardless of winning party.<br />An experienced, capable Brown government lost in 2010 as it had let southern house prices fall, and southern voters chose total unknown spivs Cameron, Osborne, Clegg as the winners, simply because they were the main alternative. Southern voters then returned a majority to Osborne and Cameron in 2015 as they kept pushing up house prices.<br /><br />People who think that "politics" matters of course think that manifestos, the battle of ideas, spin, tabloid campaigns matter, and I understand that. But for me the question of whether Labour and Corbyn or whoever else becomes a party of government in 2020 or 2025 depends mostly on whether P Hammond manages to keep southern house prices zooming up. If that does not happen, southern voters will "throw the bums out".<br /><br />There is a small chance that if the Conservatives screw up Brexit that counts as the government screwing up badly, but for 2020 T May has already setup to blame the EU27 for anything.<br />Blissexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-17706440863857050222017-02-02T11:05:19.777+00:002017-02-02T11:05:19.777+00:00Hoping to come up to Stoke to help out with canvas...Hoping to come up to Stoke to help out with canvassing so all this is useful to know.<br /><br />A friend posted a photo of Nuttall's address - a house which is now for rent and clearly uninhabited. Krisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17846670223338514717noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-51225036424691899282017-02-02T11:02:03.216+00:002017-02-02T11:02:03.216+00:00According to last night's Channel 4 News, it l...According to last night's Channel 4 News, it looks like Nuttall may already have legally scuppered his own chances, by saying he was living at an address where he was not.<br /><br />On the other hand, the Channel 4 News item gave him air-time, and the opportunity to pass it off as the establishment media witch-hunting him. Meanwhile he was able to say that he was prepared to deal with the media, whilst Labour's candidate appeared to be in hiding from them.<br /><br />I think Gareth's "Remain" position is a positive, though it depends exactly what "Remain" position that is. What is not a positive is being a committed Remainer, and then campaigning on the basis that you would any way still vote to carry through Brexit.<br /><br />That just sends out a very confused Labour message, and suggests a tendency to opportunism, to say anything simply for electoral support.<br /><br />Labour needs a clear message, consistently and confidently argued. Then you can utilise all of the troops on the ground to good effect. Its a bit like I always used to think about Alan Ball. The football commentators would always praise his work rate, telling us that he never stopped running.<br /><br />My response was always that its not how much running you are doing, but whether it is to any purpose.Boffyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08157650969929097569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-76510580535157886322017-02-02T10:46:44.511+00:002017-02-02T10:46:44.511+00:00«Stoke Central heavily voted for leave and we have...«Stoke Central heavily voted for leave and we have a remainer candidate»<br /><br />As to that J Corbyn and many other "Remainers" voted for an amended Article 50, and K Starmer made a very good speech why that is Labour's position.<br /><br />The question that will be asked of G Snell on every doorstep is: would you have voted for Article 50 as J Corbyn asked the Labour MPs to do?<br /><br />The answer is crucial, to avoid turning the by-election into a single-issue one as a rerun of the referendum, which is the obvious strategy of UKIP and Conservatives.Blissexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-62433089500935456992017-02-02T10:02:43.545+00:002017-02-02T10:02:43.545+00:00Quite right. These days, I tend to counsel voting ...Quite right. These days, I tend to counsel voting with one's heart, even when this might mean supporting a no-hoper rather than a rightist Labourite. But this time round, surely support, and vigorous campaigning, for Snell is a no-brainer regardless of his positioning within the LP?<br /><br />If the LP vote is reduced at all, then everyone opposed to the Left will claim it as a reflection of Corbyn's uselessness. "Even with a moderate candidate," they will say, "he can't command any confidence. Labour is doomed under his loony-leftie leadership". Even more nightmarish would be if Nuttall polls well, when we will see the further legitimising of the politics of deplorabilism. Farage's ubiquity in the national media will be challenged only by that of other lying, racist scum.<br /><br />Vote Snell, Stokies! MikeBnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-44570176985192219262017-02-02T08:05:54.969+00:002017-02-02T08:05:54.969+00:00I wonder how much local activism really works? I&#...I wonder how much local activism really works? I'm sure the Labour candidate is the sensible choice, but the vote for UKIP will be a real bell weather as to the impact of UKIP on Labour in the next GE. <br /><br />I read an article somewhere which said, rightly I thought, it was astonishing how the Tories have recovered from Brexit, despite losing a PM, and the supposed right wing threat of UKIP to their flanks has now become a threat to Labour. We shall see.<br /><br />But have working class values changed or has Labour? Labour has lost its industrial base but the oppressed class remains the same, only fragmented and lacking solidarity or consciousness. Labour meanwhile has retreated to the bourgeois element that was always a part but has now become dominant - only it has fucked this up by backing Brexit (because Corbyn's bourgeois leftism was always an elite of the elite), so it has lost its former working class support and has now turned its back on the bourgeois Leftists who, if they are anything, are Remainers. <br /><br />Rather than looking inwards, Labour needs to look outwards - recalibrate or die. It needs to re-embrace class warfare, but make it comprehensible to office and shop workers, and it needs to re-embrace the EU as the best way of protecting their rights. But certainly the first of these is highly unlikely because the Momentum crowd of luvvy lefties despise the proles and their "prejudices" (not having experienced any of the dissonance of mass immigration, for example). <br /><br />I'd be very surprised if at this point Labour as a party of government wasn't doomed. The Liberals (or new old Whigs) won't make it either. Perhaps it is time for a split the elective coalition between the Whigs and a party for the Workers. In any case, three lost elections down the road in Trumpian Brexitan the damage will be done. <br />Speedynoreply@blogger.com