tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post3448206454004207425..comments2024-03-27T09:14:27.496+00:00Comments on All That Is Solid ...: Social Conservatism and Tory OverreachPhilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06298147857234479278noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-14157900389614592992021-05-29T12:48:46.884+01:002021-05-29T12:48:46.884+01:00«thanks to a perceived record of delivery»
Someti...«<i>thanks to a perceived record of delivery</i>»<br /><br />Sometimes local delivery matters, but the traditional tory (Con, NuLab, LibDem) voters care about delivery as to high housing cost inflation primarily, and as to low wages and low taxes secondarily. <br /><br />Traditional tory voters did not even care much about brexit: the 30-35% of tory voters who chose "Remain" by and large kept voting Conservative in 2015, 2017, 2019, with only a modest switch to the LibDems, because the Conservatives kept delivering on housing costs, wages, taxes.<br /><br />Note: the converse did not entirely happen: there was a significant chunk of "Leave" voters for whom housing costs, wages, taxes mattered less than "Leave", and that helped New Labour defeat Labour in the 2019 elections.Blissexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-59765712030378194482021-05-29T12:34:08.656+01:002021-05-29T12:34:08.656+01:00«John Major [...] the farce of Black Wednesday, to...«<i>John Major [...] the farce of Black Wednesday, to follow it up with their vindictive pit closures programme and charging VAT on fuel bills to pensioners added cruel and callous to the popular perception of incompetence.</i>»<br /><br />I think that the "farce", "pit closure" and "VAT on fuel bills" and "incompetence" did not matter much if at all, but the huge rise in interest rates and the crash of property prices that followed "Black Wednesday" mattered a lot. Those who vote Conservative or New Labour or LibDem don't care much about the vagaries of the financial markets as such and far less about the pit workers in the "trot" areas, and while some may have been annoyed by the VAT thing, pensioners were a much less strong vested interest group 30 years go.<br /><br />«<i>Theresa May [...] The overreach here manifested itself in the terrible campaign the Tories ran.</i>»<br /><br />Such a terrible campaign resulted in the Conservatives winning more votes than any party for 20 years (even if on an expanded electorate), getting 2.3m million more votes than the slick 2015 campaign of Cameron and almost 3m more than Cameron's celebrated success of 2010:<br /><br /> 1997: 13.52m NLab. 09.60m Con. 5.24m LD<br /> 2001: 10.72m NLab. 08.34m Con. 4.81m LD<br /> 2005: 09.55m NLab. 08.78m Con. 5.99m LD<br /> 2010: 08.61m NLab. 10.70m Con. 6.84m LD<br /> 2015: 09.35m NLab. 11.33m Con. 6.30m LD+UKIP<br /> 2017: 12.88m Lab. 13.64m Con. 2.37m LD<br /> 2019: 10.30m Lab. 13.97m Con. 3.70m LD<br /><br />She did not win a majority of seats only because of the enormous "Corbyn surge" for Labour as all those ex-Labour kippers went back to Labour, the "Remain" Labour voters did not mostly switch elsewhere their vote as they and the membership accepted the "something like EEA+EFTA" compromise, and a new group of voters came back to Labour after Corbyn decisely dropped thatcherism.Blissexnoreply@blogger.com