tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post3108308948944609079..comments2024-03-19T09:00:56.265+00:00Comments on All That Is Solid ...: No Sign of the Liberal Democrat RevivalPhilhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06298147857234479278noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-67531542928218998562017-05-19T00:46:33.834+01:002017-05-19T00:46:33.834+01:00Yes, but didn't you also expect Labour to get ...Yes, but didn't you also expect Labour to get less than 20% of the vote and fewer than 100 MPS not so long ago?<br /><br />One thing to remember about polls - since the last GE almost all of them have had a pro-Tory tilt in their methodology. They won't get 48-49% on polling day, I am pretty sure of that at least. How far they fall short will go a long way towards determining the outcome. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-60928614894643518842017-05-18T12:46:53.777+01:002017-05-18T12:46:53.777+01:00And yet there is no plausible path away from the d...And yet there is no plausible path away from the de facto Tory one party state that will be installed on June 9 that does not involve Lib Dems recovering the rural and suburban seats they lost to the the Tories in 2015.<br /><br />And no plausible path I can see to another Labour government that doesn't involve some sort of deal with them (and with the Greens and perhaps some Nats) at some stage in the next 5 or 10 or 15 or 20 years.<br /><br />But hey - a new poll shows us only 15 points behind the Tories - victory is at hand!<br /><br /> Roger McCarthyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00741665797773605921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-87230278505608758632017-05-18T11:56:53.479+01:002017-05-18T11:56:53.479+01:00Boost for Jez in today’s new Ipsos Mori poll:
CON:...Boost for Jez in today’s new Ipsos Mori poll:<br />CON: 49% (-)<br />LAB: 34% (+8)<br />LIBDEM: 7% (-7)<br />GREEN: 3% (+2)<br />UKIP: 2% (-2)<br /><br />A fortnight ago, they gave the Tories a 25 point lead.<br /><br />We're now polling 3.6% above Tory-lite Ed Miliband's level in GE2015, despite the Blairites and their wrecking campaign. LibDems can no longer outflank us on the left.Shai Masothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00452453462950704943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-91854479013564076122017-05-18T09:50:51.919+01:002017-05-18T09:50:51.919+01:00I hate typos. And I do them all the bloody time.I hate typos. And I do them all the bloody time.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06298147857234479278noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-14626001184778380732017-05-18T09:22:46.428+01:002017-05-18T09:22:46.428+01:00I never thought the Liberal revival was real. The...I never thought the Liberal revival was real. Their success in a few local council by-elections was the same kind of phenomena as when UKIP or the BNP picked up seats in low poll elections. Its the effect of a determined core vote turning out when no one else can be arsed. When a General Election and a high turn out poll comes along its seen to have been a mirage.<br /><br />The Liberals picked up Richmond on the back of a protest vote against Brexit. They will probably lose it again. I wouldn't be surprised if they end up losing seats rather than gaining them overall. They should do, and so should the Greens and Plaid if they are really serious about wanting to defeat the Tories, because they should have stood down their candidates and supported Labour as the only Party able to defeat or even provide a real opposition to the Tories, and hard Brexit.<br /><br />But, the problem for the Liberals, is the same problem as for the Blair-rights and for Macron in France and all similar strands, e.g. Clinton in the US. Those conservative, social-democratic, Blair-right type policies that were applied during the 1990's/early 2000's, were built on the illusion that you can create wealth by blowing up asset price bubbles - stock, bond and property markets - and live on debt financed on the back of the mirage of paper wealth that these astronomical asset prices represented.<br /><br />Those that saw their house price or ISAs rise sharply were deluded into thinking they had become wealthy. 2008 gave a hint of how delusional that it, and when the even bigger crash that is coming soon arrives everyone will say "why didn't anyone warn us that was coming, how could we possibly have not seen that this was all built on sand?" But, everyone else, (many of whom have voted for Trump, Brexit, Le Pen, Wilders) just saw the world passing them buy as the real basis of wealth, performing real labour to produce real goods and services, was destroyed first by Thatcher and Reagan, and seen as irrelevant by Bill Clinton/Blair and their successors.<br /><br />Those polices carried out over thirty years did not just lead to Labour losing millions of workers votes over the period, the same thing happened to the US Democrats and to Social-Democratic parties across Europe. But, they also created the economic situation we have whereby real investment has been undermined whilst the state has had to pump in ever more fake money to keep the illusion of those asset price bubbles inflated, which in turn drives capital away from real investment towards speculation for capital gain.<br /><br />Any party that proposes more of the same of those policies has no answers, which is why Macron will fail, and as things stand will open the door to Le Pen. Its why if Labour gets rid of Corbyn, for some Blair-right/soft left, it will destroy itself, and do the same here, opening the door to a much more hard right Tory than May.Boffyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08157650969929097569noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-35281718317447500582017-05-18T09:19:33.067+01:002017-05-18T09:19:33.067+01:00Your triumphalist conclusion should have been qual...Your triumphalist conclusion should have been qualified a bit, I think - we need a bit of a Lib Dem revival, at least in some parts of the country. There were six or seven seats last time where the Tory majority over the LDs was smaller than the rise in the Labour vote - let's not do that again; if we could reverse it that'd be even better.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07009879034507926661noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4486641877026778105.post-14572454527635106662017-05-18T07:41:41.254+01:002017-05-18T07:41:41.254+01:00Typo
Not "double backed to Labour"! Sure...Typo<br />Not "double backed to Labour"! Surely you mean" doubled back"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com