This month saw 79,149 votes cast in 35 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 24(!) council seats changed hands. For comparison with September's results, see here.
Party
|
Number of Candidates
|
Total Vote
|
%
|
+/- Sep
|
+/- Oct 24
|
Avge/
Contest |
+/-
Seats |
Conservative
|
37
| 12,544 |
15.8%
| +0.5 |
-11.6
|
339
|
-6
|
Labour
|
30
| 9,904 |
12.5%
| -1.9 |
-9.9
| 330
|
-6
|
Lib Dem
|
36
| 19,722
|
24.9%
| +8.7 |
+3.7
|
548
|
+8
|
Reform
|
37
| 23,414
|
29.6%
| +3.7 |
+24.2
|
633
| +10
|
Green
|
29
| 6,336
|
8.0%
| -5.7
|
-3.0
|
218
|
-1
|
SNP*
|
2
| 1,598 |
2.0%
| +0.4 |
-2.0
| 799
|
0
|
PC**
|
0
|
0
| |||||
Ind***
|
25
| 3,940 |
5.0%
|
+0.1
|
158
|
-5
| |
Other****
|
7
|
2.1%
| +1.3 |
-0.2
|
242
|
0 |
* There were two by-elections in Scotland
** There were no by-elections in Wales
*** There were six Independent clashes
**** Others this month were Caterham Residents (131), Guildford Residents (565), Heritage Party (97), Our West Lancashire (704), Rejoin EU (81), Tunbridge Wells Alliance (105), TUSC (8)
Congratulations to the Labour Party. This is the first time since last November that they didn't come bottom of the month's contest. Instead, they got to share that ignominy with the Conservatives. Losing six seats apiece, Reform and the Liberal Democrats surged. The former the catch-all protest party, as heavily trailed by the media. The latter, it seems, tha catch-all tactical choice to keep Reform from winning.
October was also notable because for the third time ever, Reform lost a seat defence. The Lib Dems scooped one up from them in Bromsgrove. But before there are any celebrations, the yellow party dropped one to them near Ipswich. No sign of the tide going out for Reform yet, despite its well-publicised difficulties in local government.
Is November likely to tell a different story? It's possible the Tories could do worse than Labour, but things being as they are this month will look like last month, and all the months of the past year.
2 October
Brentwood, Hutton South, Ref gain from Con
Cheshire West & Chester, Strawberry, Lab hold
Isle of Wight, Lake North, Ref hold
Maidstone, Harrietsham Lenham & North Downs, Ref gain from Ind x3
Wigan, Wigan Central, Ref gain from Lab
8 October
Hart, Yateley West, LDem hold
9 October
Bath & North East Somerset, Widcombe & Lyncombe, LDem hold
North Northamptonshire, Lloyds & Corby Village, Ref hold
Redcar & Cleveland, Skelton East, Ref gain from Con
Teignbridge, Kenn Valley, LDem gain from Con
West Lancashire, Aughton & Holborn, Oth gain from Lab
Wychavon, Bretforton & Offerton, Ref gain from Con
16 October
Babergh, Copdock & Washbrook, Ref gain from LDem
Preston, Ashton, LDem gain from Lab
Reigate & Banstead, Meadvale & St John's, LDem hold
South Ayrshire, Ayr North, Ind gain from SNP
Spelthorne, Staines, LDem gain from Grn
Surrey, Camberley West, LDem gain from Con
Surrey, Caterham Valley, LDem hold
Surrey, Guildford South East, LDem gain from Oth
Tandridge, Whyteleafe, LDem hold
Trafford, Broadheath, Con gain from Lab
23 October
Birmingham, Moseley, LDem gain from Lab
Colchester, New Town & Christ Church, Lab hold
Fenland, Whittlesey North West, Con hold
Portsmouth, Paulsgrove, Ref gain from Ind
Somerset, Dunster, LDem gain from Con
Somerset, Glastonbury, LDem hold
Torridge, Milton & Tamarside, LDem gain from Ind
30 October
Barnet, Hendon, Con hold
Stevenage, Roebuck, Ref gain from Lab
Stirling, Stirling East, SNP gain from Con
Thanet, Garlinge, Ref gain from Ind
Tunbridge Wells, St Johns, LDem hold
Worcestershire, Bromsgrove South, LDem gain from Ref
Image Credit
Blissex has previously opined here that Reform are primarily a protest vote amongst their current electoral coalition.
ReplyDeleteIt would make some sense if that were how Starmer's office sees Reform, since it would follow that a critical chunk of Toad's vote will evaporate in the face of a "real" election. It would still seem rather far-fetched that the Labour Party could be the beneficiaries of such a collapse, under a continuation of the present deeply unpopular leadership, and therefore Labour would still be set for a wipeout in 2029. But perhaps McSweeney is hoping that Labour MPs won't notice that detail - and will buy it as an argument to allow him to cling to his position for three more years.
«Reform are primarily a protest vote amongst their current electoral coalition.»
DeleteIn a previous EU election a previous Farage vehicle took 40% of the vote, but that was clearly a protest vote; now I think that their vote share is so high not just for protest but that they are seen as a replacement for the Conservatives; note that in 2024 Reform UK already got 14.3% which was at an election that mattered. This seems to be the impression of a number of Conservatives MPs that have joined Reform UK, which had not happened before.
«It would make some sense if that were how Starmer's office sees Reform, since it would follow that a critical chunk of Toad's vote will evaporate in the face of a "real" election. It would still seem rather far-fetched that the Labour Party could be the beneficiaries of such a collapse, under a continuation of the present deeply unpopular leadership»
New Labour pursues as their core constituency as "Middle England", thatcherites the same as Conservatives and LibDems, therefore their political positioning is as an alternative "woker" thatcherite party, so they can always hope that "Middle England" thatcherites switch their vote to them as they did for Blair in 1997.
But my usual claim is that while "Middle England" voters will only vote for thatcherites, they are transaction voters, and will vote for the thatcherite party that has not deprived them of their property profits and capital gains.
The problem with New Labour's popularity is that in much of the UK property profits and capital gains are still disappointing and have been since around 2022. So "Middle England" thatcherites punished the Conservatives in 2024 for that, and many still remembered the 2009 property crash, so did not reward New Labour but Reform UK instead in 2024.
«Reform and the Liberal Democrats surged. The former the catch-all protest party, as heavily trailed by the media. The latter, it seems, the catch-all tactical choice to keep Reform from winning.»
ReplyDeleteThere are echoes of the 2004 local elections where the protest vote against Blair going into Conservatives and LibDems was significant as New Labour was very unpopular. But New Labour still got a majority in the 2005 general elections as transactional "Middle England" voters were still flush with booming property prices and rents and did not dare to vote against a government that delivered to them such huge redistribution from the lower classes (abstentions surged as a result).
The situation now is quite different: Farage's current vehicle is no longer seen as a protest vote, but as a replacement for the Conservatives and both the Conservatives and New Labour have crashed property prices during the life of many older "Middle England" voters and property prices are still going sideways.
The slow death of conservativism is happening but indeed slowly: Conservatives and Reform UK together in the above table total 45.4% of the vote.
Placing transactional Middle England voters as the primary source of non-voters during the Blair years is certainly an unintuitive idea which I don't think I've seen posited before.
DeleteThe steep and steady upward trend of non-participation is certainly the most striking story of the electoral figures from that era. But more obvious explanations for it are a lot easier to credit, given the depth to which New Labour openly betrayed traditional Labour voters, and the complete absence of a viable left wing party then.